Will the Northern Raccoon, aka Common Raccoon (Procyon lotor) become extinct in the current century?
Will the Northern Raccoon, aka Common Raccoon (Procyon lotor) become extinct in the current century?
5
200Ṁ3172099
12%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
The Northern Raccoon is a carnivore mammal native to Northern America. It has also been introduced to Central Europe, the Caucasus and Japan. This market will resolve YES if the Northern Raccoon is declared extinct by the IUCN by 2100 or earlier, and NO if it is not declared extinct by the IUCN in 2100.
Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Raccoon
IUCN Red List of Threatened Species Assessment: Least Concern
https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/41686/45216638
Please help trading this market and posting news about the species in the comments, in order to get the most accurate assessment of its extinction risk.
For comparisons with other species, you can find here more markets about species extinction risks:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will the Brown Rat, a.k.a. Common Rat (Rattus norvegicus) become extinct in the current century?
1% chance
Will the House Rat, a.k.a. Black Rat (Rattus rattus) become extinct in the current century?
4% chance
Will the Red Fox (Vulpes vulpes) become extinct in the current century?
11% chance
Will the American Black Bear (Ursus americanus) become extinct in the current century?
15% chance
Will the Wild Boar (Sus scrofa) become extinct in the current century?
6% chance
Will the House Mouse (Mus musculus) become extinct in the current century?
2% chance
Will the Roe Deer, a.k.a. European Roe Deer (Capreolus capreolus) become extinct in the current century?
4% chance
Will the Caracal (Caracal caracal) become extinct in the current century?
17% chance
Will the wild population of the Brown Rat (Rattus norvegicus) become extinct by 2100?
2% chance
Will the European Hare, a.k.a. Brown Hare (Lepus europaeus) become extinct in the current century?
9% chance