Their overall 2021 acceptance rate was 59.7%. CollegeVine (after I inputted various relevant info about me) puts my chances at 88%, categorizing it as a "safety". But given the trend of colleges yield-protecting, does Manifold really believe CollegeVine?
I probably will apply to UIUC, but if I don't, I will resolve PROB to the current market probability at the time I definitively decide. (I've chosen this option instead of N/A because this market's percentage being lower might slightly decrease my chance of applying, which could distort the percentage.) In a scenario where I get waitlisted but take my name off the waitlist, the market will also resolve PROB.
I've been hesitant to make markets about my college applications for privacy reasons, but I'm pretty curious where this one will end up at, so...
General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
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Their overall 2021 acceptance rate was 59.7%.
The thing with public schools is that their acceptance rates wildly differ based on major. You seem to have applied for Math+CS; in 2022 (which is somewhat inaccurate since 2023 was a more competitive year overall), they admitted 59 out of 200 Male OOS applicants into the major. Pure CS was even more abysmal with 124/4361.
Regardless, I wish you the best of luck on the 26th (I applied as well, but as CS ☠ )! I just hoped to bring to light what the actual admissions statistics looked like.
@JuniKim I think you were directionally correct — I was rejected (it seems) for my first choice of Math+CS but accepted for my second choice of pure math.
@Conflux I see. Regardless, congrats on getting admitted!
I was accepted into my first choice of CS 😎
I’m applying early-action to UIUC, so this market will resolve YES or NO. (Jan 26 if accepted/rejected, early March if deferred, later if waitlisted)
My intended major (nonbinding) will be Mathematics and Computer Science. My second choice will be Mathematics. (Unless I change my mind in the next two days, I guess. But the supplementals are about intended major, so it’d be annoying.)
Fwiw, apparently people at my school in recent years have been rejected from UIUC sometimes, so I think this market’s overrated