1
Will Jimmy Carter be alive on June 1?
Conflux avatar
Conflux
90
resolved Jun 1
Resolved
YES

He's beaten some of the market predictions so far! Resolves according to whatever time zone Jimmy Carter is in.

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.

Jimmy Carter
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8 avatar
Trong

https://manifold.markets/8/will-jimmy-carter-outlive-his-wife

Will Jimmy Carter outlive his wife?
Will Jimmy Carter outlive his wife?
50% chance. resolves as expected
TobyBW avatar
TobyBW

What if Carter engages in International Date Line shenanigans immediately before, during, and after his death?

Conflux avatar
Confluxpredicted YES at 94% (edited)

@TobyBW very legit and plausible scenario

In any case, if he’s alive for any part of June 1 in the time zone he’s in, it counts.

VictorLi avatar
Victor Lipredicted YES at 94%

@TobyBW carter has the chance to do one of the funniest things in manifold history rn

TobyBW avatar
TobyBW

@Conflux Do you mean June 1?

Conflux avatar
Confluxpredicted YES at 96%

@TobyBW Yeah, edited

Predictor avatar
Predictor 🔥predicted NO at 86%
Predictor avatar
Predictor 🔥predicted NO at 86%

Close but no cigar.

Predictor avatar
Predictor 🔥predicted NO at 86%
MayMeta avatar
MayMetasold Ṁ0 of NO

@Conflux I know that there's less than a 1% chance of this happening, but how this market resolves if Jimmy Carter dies on (during) June 1?

Conflux avatar
Confluxpredicted YES at 86%

@MayMeta If he’s alive for any part of June 1, this market resolves YES.

DylanSlagh avatar
Dylan Slaghbought Ṁ72 of NO

I think I still don't really understand how limit orders work 😂 I thought that one would cash me out if someone filled it

DylanSlagh avatar
Dylan Slaghbought Ṁ87 of NO

No takers at 30%?

AshleyDavies avatar
Ashley Daviessold Ṁ36 of NO

Woo I finally got out of a Jimmy carter market without making a loss

DylanSlagh avatar
Dylan Slaghbought Ṁ10 of YES

Anyone want to fill my limited order to help me cash out my juicy winnings? lol

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