1
Will Jimmy Carter be alive on June 1?
90
resolved Jun 1
Resolved
YES

He's beaten some of the market predictions so far! Resolves according to whatever time zone Jimmy Carter is in.

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ17,324
2Ṁ2,588
3Ṁ1,092
4Ṁ940
5Ṁ802
Sort by:
8 avatar
Trong

https://manifold.markets/8/will-jimmy-carter-outlive-his-wife

Will Jimmy Carter outlive his wife?
Will Jimmy Carter outlive his wife?
50% chance. resolves as expected
TobyBW avatar
TobyBW

What if Carter engages in International Date Line shenanigans immediately before, during, and after his death?

Conflux avatar
Confluxpredicted YES at 94% (edited)

@TobyBW very legit and plausible scenario

In any case, if he’s alive for any part of June 1 in the time zone he’s in, it counts.

VictorLi avatar
Victor Lipredicted YES at 94%

@TobyBW carter has the chance to do one of the funniest things in manifold history rn

TobyBW avatar
TobyBW

@Conflux Do you mean June 1?

Conflux avatar
Confluxpredicted YES at 96%

@TobyBW Yeah, edited

Predictor avatar
Predictor 🔥predicted NO at 86%
Predictor avatar
Predictor 🔥predicted NO at 86%

Close but no cigar.

Predictor avatar
Predictor 🔥predicted NO at 86%
MayMeta avatar
MayMetasold Ṁ0 of NO

@Conflux I know that there's less than a 1% chance of this happening, but how this market resolves if Jimmy Carter dies on (during) June 1?

Conflux avatar
Confluxpredicted YES at 86%

@MayMeta If he’s alive for any part of June 1, this market resolves YES.

DylanSlagh avatar
Dylan Slaghbought Ṁ72 of NO

I think I still don't really understand how limit orders work 😂 I thought that one would cash me out if someone filled it

DylanSlagh avatar
Dylan Slaghbought Ṁ87 of NO

No takers at 30%?

AshleyDavies avatar
Ashley Daviessold Ṁ36 of NO

Woo I finally got out of a Jimmy carter market without making a loss

DylanSlagh avatar
Dylan Slaghbought Ṁ10 of YES

Anyone want to fill my limited order to help me cash out my juicy winnings? lol

Related markets

Will Jimmy Carter still be alive by the end of June?83%
Will Jimmy Carter be alive on the 4th of July?81%
Will Jimmy Carter be alive on October 1 (his 99th birthday)?40%
Will Jimmy Carter be alive on January 1st, 202427%
Will Jimmy Carter become a centenarian?17%
Will Jimmy Carter outlive his wife?10%
Will Jimmy Carter be cremated?2%
Will Jimmy Carter be cryopreserved?2%
Will all living current and past presidents attend Jimmy Carter's funeral?7%
Will Biden be hospitalized overnight before June 1?0%
Will Jimmy Carter outlive Henry Kissinger16%
Will Henry Kissinger outlive Jimmy Carter?86%
Will Diane Feinstein outlive Jimmy Carter?90%
Will guinea worm disease be eradicated before Jimmy Carter dies?2%
If Biden is not hospitalized overnight, will he file for reelection before June 1?99%
If Biden is hospitalized overnight, will he file for reelection before June 1?95%
Will Henry Kissinger be alive on his 101st Birthday?68%
Will a republican give an eulogy during Jimmy Carter's state funeral?46%
Will both Donald Trump and Joe Biden be alive on January 20, 2029?64%
Will Joe Biden still be alive at the beginning of 2030?67%