Will Jimmy Carter be alive on June 1?
Will Jimmy Carter be alive on June 1?
90
1.7kṀ110kresolved Jun 1
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
He's beaten some of the market predictions so far! Resolves according to whatever time zone Jimmy Carter is in.
General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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What if Carter engages in International Date Line shenanigans immediately before, during, and after his death?
predictedYES
@TobyBW very legit and plausible scenario
In any case, if he’s alive for any part of June 1 in the time zone he’s in, it counts.
I think I still don't really understand how limit orders work 😂 I thought that one would cash me out if someone filled it
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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