Will I take any serious actions this month as a result of the monkeypox outbreak?
14
5
Ṁ442Ṁ100
resolved Sep 1
Resolved
NO1D
1W
1M
ALL
People are talking about monkeypox, but I'm not sure if I should actually be worried. I live in California. This market resolves YES if I take any serious actions this August as a result of the monkeypox outbreak, and NO otherwise. I can be convinced!
Get Ṁ200 play money
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ15 | |
| 2 | Ṁ15 | |
| 3 | Ṁ11 | |
| 4 | Ṁ7 | |
| 5 | Ṁ5 |
Sort by:
I don't know if you will, but probably you shouldn't. There have been 826 cases so far in California (https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/monkeypox/response/2022/us-map.html). In the very unlikely scenario of them more than doubling (very unlikely IMO) during August, say 1,000 more cases your risk during August is 1,000/(40 million), or 1 in 39,999. For reference, it is about 4 times more likely to get injured "Standing up from, sitting down on, or using the toilet" during a year (https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/mm6022a1.htm?s_cid=mm6022a1_w)
However, the risk varies substantially: it is way higher if you or your partner are a man who have sex with men who has multiple sexual partners (https://www.statnews.com/2022/08/04/u-s-declares-monkeypox-outbreak-a-public-health-emergency/). The risk is almost zero otherwise.