Will I stay up past 2am in 2023?
resolved Jul 5

I've always woken up and gone to bed relatively early compared to other people, and even when I have nothing in the morning I've pretty successfully avoided staying up significantly past midnight! My sleep times have been trending later, though, and it isn't ridiculous to think that I might pull an all-nighter at some point. So this market will resolve YES if I stay up past 2am sometime during 2023, and NO otherwise.

If I travel between time zones over the course of the day, it must be past 2am in all time zones I've been in that day for it to resolve this market YES. For example, if I wake up in California, fly to New York, and go to bed at 3am, it's still midnight in California, so that wouldn't count for the market.

If I go to bed earlier than 2am but am unable to fall asleep, or successfully fall asleep earlier but wake up such that I am awake at 2am, that also wouldn't count for this market. I must be intentionally staying up past 2.

Markets for 3am and 4am:

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🏅 Top traders

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Conflux avatar
Confluxbought Ṁ100 of YES

I’ve been in New York for a few days, and I am staying up unusually late to work on puzzles. Still, I’m a bit sad about the resolution criteria - from a circadian rhythms perspective, I’m not fully on Eastern Time, so it feels like maybe midnight or 1am.

2 replies
Conflux avatar
Confluxpredicted YES

@Conflux Now that it’s the morning actually I think it was reasonable to count. I definitely feel the fact that I stayed up past 2:30, and it’s been multiple days since I flew from California.

Conflux avatar
Confluxpredicted YES

@Conflux last night was a bad choice

Conflux avatar

I was thinking about these markets more, and I think the rules about cross-time zone travel were a bit suboptimal … in particular, they don’t allow any days for being jet lagged. Probably they should’ve been substantially higher when /Conflux/will-i-get-accepted-to-pair was high? As my family discusses visiting Europe anyway (50% chance?), perhaps these should be higher…but it’s lame because it’s not the kind of staying up late that’s “bad”. Maybe I should make new versions with better criteria? Idk

13 replies
Conflux avatar
Confluxbought Ṁ100 of YES

@Conflux People who’ve travelled from North America to Europe, how much “later” do you stay up without trying? I’ve never done it so I’m unsure

ShitakiIntaki avatar
Wamba Ivanhoepredicted YES

@Conflux I believe a reasonable solution is to constrain evaluation to the time zone in which you last woke up from what would otherwise be considered a daily sleep cycle. This fixes this to what your body is experiencing relative to the sleep you have gotten so far, independent from travel regardless if traveling east or west.

ShitakiIntaki avatar
Wamba Ivanhoebought Ṁ47 of YES

@ShitakiIntaki To Wit. In the 4 AM market I asked.
"I must be intentionally staying up past 4" so if you are just working on a puzzle and lose track of time and "accidentally" stay up past 4 this would not resolve YES?
Do you mean that you must not have actively tried to go to sleep before 4 (local time of the time zone in which you first awoke since you last laid down for a full rest) for this to resolve YES?
and you answered you meant the latter. So from my perspective you may have some conforming to do across these "stay awake" markets.

Conflux avatar
Confluxpredicted YES

@ShitakiIntaki Oh sorry for confusion, I’m not talking about east-west stuff. Here’s more my scenario. Suppose I fly from San Francisco to London, and go to bed at 9pm PT = 5am GMT. Then suppose I wake up at 1pm GMT and go to bed at 3am. This seems reasonable (maybe even early?) to me, especially if I don’t have anything scheduled in London that day. But it’d resolve the market YES, since that particular day I was only in one time zone. (Defining “day” based on sleep cycles, not calendar date - though idk if it matters.) Does that make sense, or is it silly? I haven’t travelled more than three time zones in a day since I was like 8.

astyerche avatar
power creeppredicted YES

@Conflux r u still coming to europe regardless ?

Conflux avatar
Confluxpredicted YES

@astyerche unclear. Wouldn’t be necessarily to the UK

ShitakiIntaki avatar
Wamba Ivanhoepredicted YES

@Conflux the scenario where you are waking up late in your time zone and then staying up late (past X am) is consistent with the resolution criteria proposed. Sleeping in and staying up late are flip sides of the same coin to me. So I don't find this controversial at all for a YES resolution. I see where this would increase the odds of the 4 am market resolving to YES as compared to if you don't travel at all.

Conflux avatar
Confluxpredicted YES

@ShitakiIntaki I agree it’d be a YES resolution. Mainly I’m lamenting writing resolution criteria that make it such

ShitakiIntaki avatar
Wamba Ivanhoepredicted YES

@Conflux You mean you feel like the spirit of the market question you intended should not resolve YES in the above hypothetical?

If that is the case, have a change of variables by an accepted norm. If your norm is wake up at 6 am then 2 am would be 20 hours later. So you can revise the criteria to "Will I stay up for greater 20 or more hours between sleep cycles?" and add a definition of sleep cycle to your description based perhaps on a norm such as you usually sleep from 9pm to 6 am so a standard sleep cycle might be 9 hours, you may choose to define sleep cycle as a substantial portion of a standard cycle so 7 or 6 hours of un interrupted sleep. Or you may define it as more than just a nap, say a nap is 1 hour and not allow more than 2 accumulated hours of nap time during that 20 hour window between "sleep cycles".. or something to that effect.

Stralor avatar
Pat Scott🩴predicted YES

@ShitakiIntaki hmm I like your thinking but the reality is that sleep schedules can drift so that Conflux still is awake for a 20-hour or whatever day but that it gets later and later

Conflux avatar
Confluxpredicted YES

@ShitakiIntaki Yeah, I could do that. Another option I was considering is, when I change time zones by X hours, the next day I have X-1 hours of forgiveness, then X-2 hours, etc. Maybe I’ll do this if I feel like making more markets about my sleep schedule

ShitakiIntaki avatar
Wamba Ivanhoepredicted YES

@Conflux I think the lamentation belies some ambiguity in what question you asked vs what question you wanted to ask. Is this about maintaining a rigid schedule? Is this about a sleep quota? I think when I last asked Conflux shared a log that recorded a point in time in their life when they were sleeping anywhere from 10 to 12 hours which means they were awake typically 14 hours. Any 20 hour wake cycle would be a departure from the prior norm regardless of what time the wake cycle started and ended.

Conflux avatar
Confluxpredicted YES

@ShitakiIntaki It was meant to be about how much my sleep patterns continue to drift toward my peers etc, as opposed to remaining unusually “good”. But I didn’t think too hard when making them. Then they kinda got a lot of traders for some reason

Conflux avatar
Confluxsold Ṁ55 of NO

stayed up past 1am last night, which is unusual for me! maybe a record

3 replies
KatjaGrace avatar
Katja Gracebought Ṁ200 of NO

@Conflux A record ever? :o

Conflux avatar
Confluxsold Ṁ50 of NO

@KatjaGrace it’s strange but I think so??

KatjaGrace avatar
Katja Gracepredicted NO

@Conflux Neat! We have very different lives in this regard :)