Will I fail at navigation in an embarrassing way in 2024?
Basic
18
981
Dec 31
70%
chance

I think I have a fairly good sense of direction, especially in areas I know well and with streets. However, I can think of four times in 2023 when I got lost or otherwise failed at navigation in an embarrassing way:

  • Once in Seattle where I led three other people twenty blocks the wrong way (I knew the correct directions but misinterpreted where we were on the map...we were just walking on a street until we saw the hotel, but got distracted by talking about Singapore...)

  • Once in an area of San Francisco near the Ferry Building where I overestimated my geographical intuitions and would've walked in the wrong direction if @Imbens didn't check Apple Maps

  • Twice at Westfield Mall when I couldn't find the famously-easy-to-find Dome area (in my defense, I was pretty hungry)

I will use judgement to determine what counts as embarrassing, guided by these examples. Due to the subjectivity, I will not bet. I will do my best to avoid failing at navigation in an embarrassing way.

Will it happen again anyway this year? (Deadline for this market is end of December 30.)

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.

Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:

Almost halfway through the year, any navigational fails yet?

None that are embarrassing!

bought Ṁ30 NO from 71% to 70%

Okay, now that I have skin in the game -- do you plan to place yourself into any unfamiliar territory in 2024 or just stay at/around home the entire year?

@Eliza Yes, I think I’ll be in multiple new cities. There’s some chance I’ll go to Brazil (see /Conflux/will-i-qualify-for-the-2024-interna). Also in theory I will be going to college

You will, but my balance is zero right now so I can't bet.

@Eliza no longer