Will I get a 5 on AP US History without taking the class?
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resolved Jul 5
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YES

I know a lot of US History info from previous classes, Wikipedia binges, and suchlike, so I'm hoping to get a 5 on the APUSH test even though I haven't actually taken the APUSH class.

So far I've taken part of a practice test and watched some videos on how to score well on the free response (key point: write formulaically). My plan is to self-study to fill in some of my content gaps, do more practice tests, and study with a friend at another school who is taking the test and the APUSH class and apparently got a 5 on AP Euro last year. Here's hoping all that's enough to get me a 5 as well! But we'll see.

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.

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predicted YES

Congratulations 🎉

bought Ṁ43 of NO

There’s no reason the probability would’ve changed since I took the test, but I’m looking for a bit of emotional insurance since scores drop on Wednesday.

bought Ṁ100 of YES

I kinda feel like I slayed. I've thought that before though and been wrong, so idk. But I think this time it's real!

predicted NO

@Conflux been hearing around and off the vibe you'll defo be fine lol

predicted NO

@astyerche for legal reasons nothing about the actual problems 😔 just the vibes

predicted YES

Chonflux will win

bought Ṁ10 of YES

Thoughts going into tomorrow: I feel on the borderlands of a 4 and a 5. Great on multiple choice but it's only 40% of the exam. All of the practice writing stuff I've done, my knowledgeable apush friend thinks is more 4-quality than 5-quality, mostly for not explicitly tying things to the thesis enough and being specific enough. But that was like a week ago and I thiiiink I understand my mistakes and will be careful enough tomorrow to get a 5. And maybe some luck would help. Anyway, time to get some sleep!

predicted NO

@Conflux good luck!

predicted NO

If you do better than me I might cry

I did another multiple choice from the book (40/55) and a real multiple choice from a a past AP (48/55). I think the real ones are easier, so this updates me in favor of a noticeably higher score on multiple choice! It's still only 40% of the exam.

predicted YES

@Conflux Last multiple choice score is 52/55, the hell

sold Ṁ75 of YES

Update: my friend thinks my practice test was more like a 3, but gave me some helpful advice and thinks I’ll improve quickly on the next practice test. I have to answer questions more explicitly, follow the format better, write more words on the next DBQ, and also do it on a separate sheet of paper instead of trying to fit it in the test book. We’re both optimistic since I think these are pretty surface-level things, and I pretty much have the required content/historical understanding.

bought Ṁ100 of YES

Did a practice test yesterday! 38/55 on multiple choice, with a few clear areas for improvement (I'm very weak on the early 1600s history questions) but it's only 40% of the score. Most of the test is writing - short answers, document-based questions, long essays. Watched some videos (from Heimler History on YouTube) about it, which go over the AP rubrics and the formula you should use.

I think I did a decent job executing this on my practice test, though it's hard to tell what score I would've gotten. Depending on how to interpret the AP rubric, I think my answers are probably in 4/5 territory, and I expect to improve as I practice more.

Overall I'm feeling good! Motivated. I didn't even feel like the practice test was torturous, although my hand was quite sore.

@Conflux I'm not looking forward to taking it, the fuck is an encomienda system

predicted YES

@Conflux How's your complexity and sourcing?

Also, are you doing practice tests from College Board? Do those give feedback on SA/LE/DB questions?

predicted YES

@puntabulous I think I’ve got a Princeton Review book? Maybe a different brand, but that style.

Have you taken APUSH/Euro/World? Maybe we can chat

predicted YES

@Conflux Yep, I took APUSH last year and got a 5! Taking World this year.

predicted YES

@puntabulous Oh awesome!

bought Ṁ2 of YES

My history knowledge is a mess
But who needs knowledge to impress?
I'll cheat my way to victory
AI takes the test for me

bought Ṁ30 of YES

well thanks y’all for the lovely incentive!