Will I believe that I actually made M$212 profit on a market (as it claims), instead of the M$206 that I calculated, by end of tomorrow?

121

Ṁ773

Ṁ230

resolved Feb 7

Resolved

ALL

The first linked market claims I made a profit of M$212. In order to resolve the second linked market (which also factors in the bribes of at least M$220 that I paid out), I carefully hand-checked my actual profit, and came up with a figure of M$206. This market resolves YES if a mistake is found in my tabulation that makes me believe the M$212 figure. Not a mistake that makes me believe a different profit value.

My calculation:

M$1761 in payout

- M$2171 in buys minus sells [5+10+20+10+10+10+10+50-45+50+5-253+20-20+2+5+5+1000+500+589-995+100+5-4+20+20+20+10+20+75+50+10-16-8+15+50+50+50+100+30+10+10+500+66]

+ M$616 in yes-no share cancellation [45+236+113+73+122+27]

= M$206 profit.

[Edit: If fees are counted, since I made 44 transactions, that would subtract M$4.4, for an estimate of M$201.6 profit.]

Hopefully I made a mistake! M$6 really feels like such a small discrepancy.

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.

Get Ṁ200 play money

🏅 Top traders

#	Name	Total profit
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2		Ṁ29
3		Ṁ10
4		Ṁ3
5		Ṁ1

11 Comments

9 Holders

22 Trades

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predicted NO

SirSalty said in the Discord that betting M$10 is paying M$10.1, and fees are probably not included in the profit calculations. This suggests that my real profit was M$201.4, and that’s the value that I believe most right now. It has not escaped notice that adding the fees to M$206 instead of subtracting them would get quite close to M$212, but I just think that’s a sign error.

iirc fractions of mana exist but aren't shown, that could probably account for the discrepancy

predicted NO

@Cadence I’m prepared to accept that if the discrepancy is less than like M$2 (which the fees-are-added explanation gets), but does that explain a M$6 gap?

bought Ṁ10 of YES

You can use the API to get a detailed list of all transactions

bought Ṁ10 of YES

There's a 0.1M transaction tax per trade on Manifold, since you made more than 50 trades doesn't that neatly line up with the 6M discrepancy

bought Ṁ50 of NO

@Tripping I made 44 trades, so M$4.4. But isn’t the fee negative, decreasing the calculated profit to M$201.6?

predicted YES

it's 51 with the yes-no cancellations isn't it? and the profit explains where the missing money is because the 212 figure doesn't take it into account

predicted NO

@Tripping I think you’re making a sign error, though. Fees are negative

predicted YES

@Conflux yes, it takes the 212 figure to 206