He just suspended his campaign. But who will he endorse?
Resolves "No one" if he makes no endorsement, even during the general election. Otherwise, resolves to the name of the next person he officially endorses for the 2024 presidential election. If he makes some weird joint endorsement, I may resolve to multiple options; however, I think this is unlikely. If he again becomes a candidate, resolves “Mike Pence.”
See also:
General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.
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Pence says it's no surprise "I will not be endorsing Donald Trump" in 2024 https://www.npr.org/1238909445
@Marnix Surprised Trump was trading at ~10% for so long. Like I said, Pence has a backbone and has made it clear he wasn't happy with the events of January 6.
Mike Pence has no shame and is bound to endorse Donnie once again (my bet is that he waits for the general).
“I know that DJT incited a mob that threatened my life, and I’m not running as his VP candidate anymore, and we’ve exchanged insults, but please vote for him anyway!” Would be a really weird thing to say. I’d expect that kind of behavior from e.g. DeSantis, but Pence seems to have more of a backbone than most Republicans.
Yeah, he might be polling at an incredible "not included on basically any polls," but he's also a pastor who seems to have made it his entire Thing
@Conflux I'm mostly buying that as a hedge against Pence doing something weird and unexpected, so I don't have any specific candidates in mind.