Which Proofnik will get the "Trustworthy. ish." badge next?
Basic
21
Ṁ3319
Jan 1
48%
JoshuaB
14%
Trong
13%
cc6
7%
Imbens
7%
ithildulin
5%
halfaswiftie
2%
cloe
1.3%
DesTiny
1.3%
DeadRhino

At the moment, I'm the only current or former member of Proof School to have the "Trustworthy. ish." checkmark badge. It's currently given to a hardcoded list of 22 users, and I got it by bribing @Austin M$1. It's mostly meaningless, but does allow me to put other people's markets in groups.

If and when I learn of another Proofnik who has received this badge, I will check all other Proofniks to see if they have the badge. If no one else has it, I will resolve to that Proofnik; otherwise, I will resolve in equal percentages to all trustworthy-ish Proofniks besides me.

(Clarification: If one of them is a Proofnik who's not an answer in the market, I will add them with a M$1 bet first.)

Note: I will resolve to the Proofnik's USERNAME (what you see when you @ them), not their real name or display name. If they change their username, I will resolve to whichever username they had when they were first added as an answer to this market.

If the trustworthy-ish badge is abolished, or Manifold announces a policy which means that no other Proofniks can ever get this badge, I will resolve N/A. Otherwise, I will extend the close date until another Proofnik is trustworthy-ish.

Note that "halfaswiftie" is the previous name of @cece

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.

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Individual markets (that I’ve seen) about Proofniks getting trustworthy-ish badges.

Interesting there’s a discrepancy between me being far and above the highest here, but basically the same odds for the 2023 markets

@JoshuaB don’t forget

@JoshuaB also yeah I’d short you if it was easier. You just haven’t made that many big markets lately I feel like!

@Conflux But my commenting game has been on-point :-P

@JoshuaB I’d give you the badge! Just sayin’

What happens if I become trustworthy-ish, and then become a proofnik?

@Wobbles Then it would resolve to you. But note that this market specifically defines Proofnik as a current or former member of Proof School, so it ignores shenanigans.

@Conflux what if I were to attend an online class?

@Wobbles That’s not really a thing rn

@Conflux Also, for the record, per market description, it would resolve to DesTiny, not Wobbles!

@JoshuaB yeah but that's cringe

darn it

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