Please keep this market private; don't send it to people or discuss it with anyone who isn't on the market! Maybe it’s irrational, but I've just been sort of anxious about making it for awhile now, and don’t want it to be super public.

I've compiled a table of relevant statistics about each college for forecasting. Feel free to ask questions, but I may opt not to answer them. Don't worry about the tiers, they're just my rough effort to quantify my interest in attending each of the colleges.

General App Information (god it feels weird to write this all out publicly)

• Demographics: Bay Area male; upper-middle-class; legacy at Stanford

• Achievement GPA: 5.0 (with advanced coursework, especially in math)

• SAT: 1590 (800 math, 790 verbal) (still can't believe this, Black Book ftw)

• APs: US History (5), Statistics (5), Calculus BC (5, with AB subscore 4 lmao), Physics C: Mechanics (4), Chemistry (4)

• Activities: NYT-published puzzle creator; puzzlesforprogress.net; Camp Lemma / Strategy & Puzzles Camp counselor; Manifold miscellany; OPTIC coordinator; Yearbook Assistant Editor; piano lessons; LMI puzzle contest co-creator; Zephyr Philosophy Club; Proof linguistics minicourse TA

• Honors: IOL first alternate; CDB scholar; NACLO invitational round qualifier; AIME qualifier; Manifold election forecasting tournament 3rd place

• Recurring essay topics: puzzle creating; nice numbers; camp counseling and CS1 student teaching; my Ultimate Personal Spreadsheet; Manifold contributions; interdisciplinary interests. A theme is parlaying my intrinsic academic explorations into positive experiences for others

• Recommenders: Kathy (counselor letter), Eric, Josh - all teachers I have good relationships with

• General narrative: I definitely failed at a lot of productivity goals, and felt pretty bad as a result during the college app process. But I think the end product came out pretty good! We'll see...

I initialized the market percentages to what CollegeVine said, even though CollegeVine may not be fully trustworthy and doesn't incorporate all information, just to decrease the free money. I won't bet much more, if at all, for the sake of my own well-being.

See also

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.