How late will I stay up in 2025? (Excludes time zone stuff, includes New Year’s Day 2026, see description)
6
100Ṁ187
2026
95%
4am
93%
3am
60%
5am
47%
6am
33%
7am

Each component market resolve YES as soon as I stay up that late during 2025, counting New Year’s 2026 for fun. (This means that if 5am resolves YES, then 4am must resolve YES first. In the event of an all-nighter, they would all resolve YES.) If I go to bed earlier than that time but am unable to fall asleep, or successfully fall asleep earlier but wake up such that I am awake at that time, that wouldn't count for this market. I must be intentionally staying up past that time.

I'm a college student now, and my sleep schedule has shifted substantially — I rarely go to bed before midnight, and I've stayed up past 3am several times. My record so far is 3:15am.

Also, while in Hawaii, I was planning to stay on Pacific Time, and stayed up until 4:17 Pacific (= 2:17 Hawaii time). That would not count for this market, because...

Time zone fine print: When traveling between time zones, I will consider the earliest time zone that I’ve been in that day. For instance, if I travel from California to New York (3 hours difference), and go to bed at 4am EST, that would be 1am PST and would not count for this market. Furthermore, there will be a buffer of 1 hour per day as I adapt to the new time zone. So the next day, 4am EST would count as 2am, then the next day, 3am, then finally 4am. For another example, if I go from California to England (8 hours difference), there would be a full 8-day period where I could gradually acclimate to GMT without affecting this market. I know this is a pretty aggressive condition, but I just don’t want time zone shenanigans to affect this market.

See last year:

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.

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