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Thank god, I couldn't lose another 3k

Derivative market (cc @DesTiny)

@Conflux Currently, I believe the profit value of M$201.6, accounting for fees. That’s less than the bribes I paid.

@Conflux Anyway, that, M$206, and M$212 all cause this market to resolve NO, so I’m doing that.

@Conflux have you come to a consensus?

@DesTiny My current holdup is that the market claims I made an M$212 profit while my tabulations show an M$206 profit, so I want to know what the deal is. The real profit must be under M$220 for a NO resolve (or maybe M$245 or M$270 would also count, depending on what I decide about the Cadence thing - right now I don’t have to make a decision).

If something is figured out which makes the manual profit calculation equal to M$212, I’ll resolve NO immediately. Otherwise I might just resolve NO in like a day.

Alleged profit is M$212. I'm trying to double-check this, and currently ending up with a loss of M$410, which would definitely mean this market resolves NO. I was mostly betting YES, but I did buy really really high and sell a bit at a loss, so maybe that's actually true? I want to feel confident about the actual profit of the market before resolving this market. I feel confident about the accuracy of the net bribes.

Net bribes: M$245 (arguably M$220)

Conditions Met (Total paid = M$220 out of M$220)

@stq: M$30 for 30 minutes

stq: M$70 for being decisive

@DeadRhino: M$10 for 10 minutes

DeadRhino: M$20 for being decisive

DeadRhino: M$90=M$30x3 for getting 3 other people on the call

Conditions Half-Met? (Total paid = M$25 out of M$50)

@Cadence: M$50 for being decisive within 5 minutes. She joined the call within that time, but wasn’t decisive for 10 minutes. We both thought she’d earned the bribe. She said she wouldn’t take it if I wouldn’t have made a profit otherwise. I did the tabulations and concluded I would lose money anyway, so paid her. Then realized the conditions weren’t fully met. I said she could keep it all, but she paid me half back (M$25) as a compromise.

Conditions Not Met (Total paid = M$0 out of M$45)

DeadRhino: M$10 if another 10 minutes

DeadRhino: M$5 if joining within 30 seconds

@AM: M$10 if 10 minutes (also offered to many other people)

AM: M$20 if being decisive (also offered to many other people)

@Conflux To clarify, "betting YES" on the original market, not this one. Note that if either the profit figure from the original market or if my current calculation of it is accurate, this derivative market will resolve NO.

@Conflux (I think the chance of this market resolving NO is very very high.)

@Conflux Specifically, I got a payout of M$1761. The cost basis is irrelevant since it does averaging over sells. The amount that I invested should be buys minus sells, which should be (5+10+20+10+10+10+10+50-45+50+5-253+20-20+2+5+5+1000+500+589-995+100+5-4+20+20+20+10+20+75+50+10-16-8+15+50+50+50+100+30+10+10+500+66) if I didn't make a mistake, which is M$2171. That's a loss of M$410 before bribes.

Can anyone find an error? There might very well be one.

@Conflux Oh wait, I forgot to factor in YES and NO shares cancelling. That's probably my error.

@Conflux 1761-(5+10+20+10+10+10+10+50-45+50+5-253+20-20+2+5+5+1000+500+589-995+100+5-4+20+20+20+10+20+75+50+10-16-8+15+50+50+50+100+30+10+10+500+66)) + (45+236+113+73+122+27) = 206, which is pretty close but not exactly 212.

If this resolves yes I will permanently despise conflux, if it doesn't then i will still cry

@DesTiny just sell all your shares rn

@stq I'd lose another 1k, and the market would go up to 99%

@DesTiny oh is there that little liquidity, wow

@stq I'm the only person who has no lmao

@DesTiny I’ll insure you up to Ṁ1451 if it resolves yes, but then in return I may ask you to do some shenanigans in future

SIMON STOP

@DesTiny

I lost 250 :(

I hate my existence

listed profit is M$212

M$100 to @stq who refused to take a smaller bribe

M$10 to @AM if 10 minutes + M$20 if decisive - neither of which I'm sure about, we got to 17 very quickly after 16

M$50 to @Cadence but she says she'll refuse if it was decisive

To @DeadRhino: M$10 for 10 minutes (already paid) + M$10 for another 10 + M$5 within 30 seconds of something + M$20 if decisive + M$90 for getting 3 people multilevel marketing (so total of M$120, up to M$135, the 10 minutes and 30 seconds we're unsure)

maybe I'm forgetting something

This is like M$230 even without the Cadence thing so I think this'll be NO

@Conflux wait I was including the AM ones in that total but I don't think they were decisive??

@Conflux this is actually down to the wire

@Conflux i just lost $0.40

Update: @AM has confirmed to me that they're not actually eligible for any of the bribes.

@Conflux I've now given DeadRhino an additional M$110 for being decisive + multilevel marketing. So a total of M$120 for him. Added to the M$100 for stq that's 220 which is already enough, before the Cadence thing

@Conflux :(

@Cadence you get to take your bribe!

@Conflux oh, true