When Will 9x9 Go Be Solved?
3
175Ṁ572100
24%
Before 2027
34%
Before 2030
41%
Before 2035
50%
Before 2040
59%
Before 2050
74%
Before 2100
50%
2100 or later
"Solved" means it has been proven that, given one specific komi value, 9x9 go is tied with optimal play. An ultraweak solution would suffice to solve this, as long as the game is certainly tied with that komi. Any reasonable 9x9 ruleset will count.
If a proof is offered in, for example, 2029, but not accepted until after 2030, this market will resolve to "Before 2030". As a result, options might not necessarily resolve right away (on top of the fact that I'm unlikely to resolve things promptly years in the future). I expect this market to be fairly simple to resolve, but if there's any controversy over whether a solution or ruleset "counts" I'll sell all my shares before resolving. Barring that, I may trade in this market if I feel like it.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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