Which superhero movie released between 4/1 and 9/1, 2025 will earn the highest Superhero Success Score (SSS)?
Which superhero movie released between 4/1 and 9/1, 2025 will earn the highest Superhero Success Score (SSS)?
3
100Ṁ90Oct 1
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
43%
Superman (2025)
21%
Thunderbolts*
36%
Fantastic Four: First Steps
With superhero movies facing growing skepticism, this summer could mark a turning point. Major contenders—like Superman, Thunderbolts⁎, and Fantastic Four—are all fighting for critical and commercial dominance. But who will rise above the noise?
Scoring Method:
Each film will receive a Superhero Success Score (SSS) calculated as:
SSS = (Rotten Tomatoes Critic Score × 0.5) + (Box Office % of Budget × 0.5)
RT Score: Critics’ Tomatometer as of September 15, 2025
Box Office % of Budget: (Worldwide Gross ÷ Production Budget) × 100
(e.g., a movie with an 85% critic score and a 3× return on budget gets an SSS of 192.5)
Resolution Criteria:
The movie with the highest SSS as of October 1, 2025, will be the winner. Data will be sourced from Box Office Mojo and Rotten Tomatoes.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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