Will the "2024 Election be Sooner or Later Than Planned"?
16
132
310
Dec 31
3%
chance

This market is part of a series of markets inspired by a scroll through Rumble.com. They will be resolved to PROB based on the spirit of the hypothesis (somewhat vibes-based), using evidence posted in comments and own research if necessary.
I will not be trading in those markets.
If you want to discuss this series of markets in general there is a Discord thread.

YES if the 2024 United States presidential election occurs more than 3 days away from the currently scheduled date of November 5, 2024 or does not occur in 2024.

Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Sort by:
bought Ṁ21 of NO

Has this happened even once since 1845?

Edit:
Just checked, it hasn't.

@JamesColiar that does not seem to be a factor in Q-adjacent prediction making lol

bought Ṁ100 of NO

If it occurs on schedule, but we don't know the results until later than expected (e.g., counting takes a while like in 2020), how would this resolve?

@JosephNoonan NO, only the day the votes are actually cast is relevant

More related questions