This market is part of a series of markets inspired by a scroll through Rumble.com. They will be resolved to PROB based on the spirit of the hypothesis (somewhat vibes-based), using evidence posted in comments and own research if necessary.
I will not be trading in those markets.
If you want to discuss this series of markets in general there is a Discord thread.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ52 | |
| 2 | Ṁ9 | |
| 3 | Ṁ1 | |
| 4 | Ṁ0 | |
| 5 | Ṁ0 |
After reading the additional reporting by The Independent:
https://theintercept.com/2023/08/16/imran-khan-cable-pakistan-us/
https://theintercept.com/2023/08/18/deconstructed-leaked-pakistan-cable/
and looking for alternative sources/opinions I'm around 60%, one week to change my mind starts now.
https://theintercept.com/2023/08/09/imran-khan-pakistan-cypher-ukraine-russia/
"Forced" definitely seems to be the wrong descriptor, but it does look like a vague threat with a promise of forgiveness if they oust the PM.
>The document quotes [US Pakistan Ambassador] Lu saying that “people here and in Europe are quite concerned about why Pakistan is taking such an aggressively neutral position (on Ukraine), if such a position is even possible. It does not seem such a neutral stand to us.” [...] “it seems quite clear that this is the Prime Minister’s policy.” [...] “I think if the no-confidence vote against the Prime Minister succeeds, all will be forgiven in Washington" [...] “I cannot tell how this will be seen by Europe but I suspect their reaction will be similar,” Lu said, adding that Khan could face “isolation” by Europe and the U.S. should he remain in office.
@Frogswap Worth adding that neither the US nor Pakistan has confirmed the authenticity of the document; in April, Khan claimed that the document existed and the US denied it, but no comment from the US after the release (per this article)
@Frogswap didn't read the whole thing, will when I have some time, that seems 50%+ assuming the document is real and the quote in it is accurate, which I have no idea about the probability of?
@Frogswap technically the question is about if the documents show it, not necessarily if it's true, hmm
I'll look into it more later
@ShadowyZephyr 2022, I think? But let's go with any, as long as it has been first proven by documents made public in the last 6 months.