This market is part of a series of markets inspired by a scroll through Rumble.com. They will be resolved to PROB based on the spirit of the hypothesis (somewhat vibes-based), using evidence posted in comments and own research if necessary.
I will not be trading in those markets.
If you want to discuss this series of markets in general there is a Discord thread.
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@Nosaix Russia failed its winter offensive which resulted in internal struggle between regular army and mercenaries which culminated in a rebellion then mercenary boss and staff got assassinated in Russia and now we are waiting for another coup while the Ukrainian army slowly creeps through the entrenched Russian positions in southern Ukraine. The offensive has not gone miraculously well, but saying it has gone badly is weird.
@RatUziCat Just my opinion, but the stated goal before the counteroffensive began was to reach the Sea of Azov, cutting off Russia's supply lines to Crimea. So when I say badly, I mean minimal progress towards that goal, with a high price paid in lives and equipment.
As for what happens next, I'm not claiming to be able to predict it, I just have a bad feeling about the next 12 months.
I feel like we are, relative to expectations before the war. Everyone thought Russia would steamroll Ukraine within weeks.