Who will Time Magazine select as Person Of The Year 2024?
31
333
1.1K
Dec 4
2%
Jack Smith
24%
Something or someone selected because of association with AI, or AI itself
4%
Someone else running for political office not specifically named here
0.2%
Invalid option
19%
Joe Biden
34%
Donald Trump
17%
Other

@Joshua or anyone can make a better one closer to the time, my feelings won't be hurt. For my own purposes I want to amplify couple cases I am making in 2023.

"Something or someone selected because of relationship to AI" would include Sam Altman. Would not include Wil Wheaton just for being vocal supporter of WGA and SAG/AFTRA strikes, even though several demands of the strikes involved potential uses of AI. Could include Wil.Wheaton though if he goes full Eric Clapton and uses his public platform to become a poster child for his opinion on AI.

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@Radicalia @BTE in 2023 market I was arguing that Jack Smith will not be 2023 POTY because either his biggest global impact will be in 2024 or he won't be in the running at all. Can't remember who with but I still like my take although apparently no one else does.

bought Ṁ10 of Donald Trump YES

If Trump wins the election he’ll be POTY. 50/50 chance if Biden is elected. Have to remember first time president has always been POTY and half the time or more upon reelection

bought Ṁ10 of Someone else running... YES

Okay so what if Biden is the POTY. He was running for political office. How does this resolve?

@Joshua updated the "running for office' option.

Heres a link to Time's own Person Of The Year Poster Store for those of you who want to gift me a giant poster of Xi's mug.

bought Ṁ10 of Other YES

Wait, define "running for politcial office". It should go to the winner of the presidential election. They're not still running after they won though, right?

Also I'm happy to see other takes on the format but this is going to be a mess with duplicates as a linked market.

@Joshua Fine. Someone who during 2024 was running for political office. Does not have to be for US president. Does not have to win.

@Joshua Agree the duplicates will make a mess if allowed to stand. So you'd think whoever does UI/UX at Manifold would like to know this is an easy goof to make. We can only hope someone offers a solution sometime during 2024.

@Joshua I renamed the "Other" that no one had bet on to Invalid Option. If it wins we will all have a laugh.

@NicoDelon Manifold lags for me and I type fast. I spent a whole at first trying to figure out how to delete or edit my own comment and gave up.

bought Ṁ10 of Other YES

@ClubmasterTransparent no worries, just a joke

@NicoDelon Just realized it lags for everyone haha.

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