How is this random guy on Twitter?
Some informations :
GPT-5 is true if this account is run, or heavily use the "next generation of model" by openai
Q* or Strawberry is true if the account use the speculated openai reasoning system (often referred by the name Q* or strawberry)
GPT-4o or variant is true if this account is run or heavily use an AI model from the GPT-4o family
Random person is true if this account is run by one or many people that are not from openai
Random openai employee is true if this account is run by one or many people that are from openai
Other is true if this account is run or heavily use something I didn't excepted, something not in the options above. (Like a GPT-4 not o, model, GPT-3, a model not from openai, an alien, a complex ai agent system not from openai...)
Many things can be true at ounce.
Heavily use is "more than 33% of this account tweet is done autonomously using..."
I think it will be extremely hard to be sure about this guy real identity. The market will probably stay until it expires. When it expires all the options with 50% or more will be considered true, else false.
Of course the market will be resolved if we really learn the identity of this guy, and the market is sure about it, anyway I will not take arbitrary decisions.
1,000game over, just some vibes from a rando internet person https://x.com/BigTechAlert/status/1823777621840142353
Reddit sentiment is this guy is a fraud, he's now posting about xai - it's just a random person who needs to go outside https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/1eqikyi/iruletheworldmo_is_claiming_a_new_architecture/?sort=new
he's just retweeting xai posts https://x.com/devindkim/status/1823618097959592003 and praising elon https://x.com/iruletheworldmo/status/1823614750019695037
whatever he might be no one knows. the only reason people paid attention to him/it is cause the official chatgpt twitter account followed him and sama responded to one of his tweets
It's an agent. Can we resolve Other as correct?
I don't think it is so I hope it doesn't resolve to yes based on that tweet
Yea tbh it will be kinda hard to know when the identity of this strawberry guy will be known for sure.
I think I will let this market stay until it expires (Or until for sure, we will know this guy and wait 4-5 days to be sure the market agree. Like if the market has to say 99% strawberry before I resolve the market to "hey it's strawberry").
(This place is more a market than a bet)
When there's no reason left standing for him not to be just a person, I think it's reasonable to default to that. But I don't mind as long as you don't close the market on random unbacked rumors of the extraordinary claim that he's a fruit agent.
