Will more than 15,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War this year? | Manifold

Will more than 15,000 people be killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War this year?

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resolved Nov 30

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To date ~14,000 people have been killed in the Russo-Ukrainian War (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War). The first year of the war was the deadliest, with just over 5,000 people dying (https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Casualties_of_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War&oldid=644065338). There is talk of another Russia invasion on Ukraine this year with some saying it will be large scale. Will this year be deadlier than 2014? #RussiaUkraine #War

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predicted YES

> The outlet collected open-source data to identify and verify the deaths of 3,043 Russian servicemen, using social media, news reports, or confirmation by relatives. Ukraine claims 30 000 Russian military losses (not sure is it just deaths or is it "only" casualties).

predicted NO

OHCHR puts civilian deaths at 4,074: https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3496200-ohchr-delivers-update-on-civilian-death-toll-of-russian-invasion-of-ukraine.html Moscow Times reports Russian military deaths at 3,000: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/05/31/russian-army-death-toll-in-ukraine-tops-3000-investigation-a77846 Zelensky says Ukrainian military deaths are 2500-3000: https://kyivindependent.com/uncategorized/zelensky-ukraine-may-be-loosing-up-to-100-soldiers-fighting-in-the-east-every-day/ Which puts the total at ~10,000 atm.

ah, forgot that it would lock my play-money for year

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