What party will win the November 2028 Presidential election?

Resolution criteria

The election will be held on November 7, 2028. The market resolves to whichever party's candidate wins the presidency based on the official Electoral College results certified by Congress. Resolution sources: FEC official results, Associated Press election results, or major news outlet projections.

Background

Trump is ineligible for a third term under the Twenty-second Amendment, making this an open race for both parties. Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris are the politicians Democrats are most likely to consider voting for in a 2028 Democratic presidential primary, with 55% and 54% respectively saying they'd consider them. Among Republicans, JD Vance is by far the largest share saying they would consider voting for him in the 2028 Republican presidential primary at 69%. Americans are somewhat more likely to expect a Republican victory in the next presidential election than a Democratic win (36% vs. 30%).

Considerations

Third-party and Independent candidates have historically performed poorly in U.S. presidential elections, with the last non-major-party candidate to win electoral votes being George Wallace in 1968. The "Independent" and "Third Party" options may resolve together or separately depending on whether a single Independent candidate or multiple third-party candidates gain traction. Clarify with the market creator whether these should be treated as distinct outcomes.

Resolution Criteria

Question will resolve on or about January 6, 2029 after the Electoral College votes, hopefully. 🇺🇸

I'll search for the most current information about the 2028 U.S. Presidential election to ensure the description is accurate and up-to-date.#### Resolution criteria

The election will be held on November 7, 2028. The market resolves to whichever party's candidate wins the presidency based on Electoral College votes certified by Congress on January 6 (or January 6, 2029 in this case). Resolution sources: FEC official results, Associated Press election results, or major news outlet projections.

Background

The Twenty-second Amendment bars all former and current presidents from seeking more than two terms in office, making this an open race for both parties. Gavin Newsom and Kamala Harris are the politicians Democrats are most likely to consider voting for in a 2028 Democratic presidential primary, with 55% and 54% respectively saying they'd consider them. JD Vance enjoys support from a majority of likely Republican 2028 primary voters across early primary states.

Considerations

Third-party and Independent candidates have historically performed poorly in U.S. presidential elections. The "Independent" and "Third Party" options may resolve together or separately depending on whether a single Independent candidate or multiple third-party candidates gain traction. Clarify with the market creator whether these should be treated as distinct outcomes.

• Update 2026-01-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the person taking office is not elected by the people and properly voted by the Electoral College, the market will likely resolve N/A.