This is a "how many" question using guise of yes no where different resolution %s represent different answers.

So if Tesla produces 460,000 or less vehicles then the claim resolves at 0%
if Tesla produces 460,001 to 460,500 vehicles then the claim resolves at 1%
if Tesla produces 460,501 to 461,000 vehicles then the claim resolves at 2%

if Tesla produces 461,001 to 461,500 vehicles then the claim resolves at 3%

...
If Tesla produces 509,501 or more vehicles then the claim resolves at 100%

Figures usually announced by Tesla shortly after quarter ends

last five quarters:

Q3 2022 https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-third-quarter 365923

Q4 2022 https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-fourth-quarter 439701

Q1 2023 https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-first-quarter-2023 440808

Q2 2023 https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-second-quarter-2023 479700

Q3 2023 https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/tesla-vehicle-production-deliveries-and-date-financial-results-webcast-third-quarter-2023 430488

The equivalent press release for Q4 2023 will be used but if not available may wait for Q4 financial reports. If Semi or Cybertruck numbers are included in the announcement they will be included in the relevant number but if not shown will not be included or added on to the announced numbers.

Background

Prices have been reduced presumably to stimulate demand, but is production also being throttled according to demand? Elon Musk seems to have suggested it is pretty much full pace production and they can generate enough demand by cutting prices. Freemont and Shanghai may well be at or near production capacity limits but Berlin and Texas are ramping up recently reaching 5000 per week production rates. The latest official guidance is

"For 2023, we expect to remain ahead of the long-term 50% CAGR with around 1.8 million vehicles for the year."

Having produced 1350996 in the first three quarters 1.8m requires production of 449k.

However, at 2022 q4 earnings there were some suggestions that 2 million may not be impossible. 1.8 million is only 450k per quarter and they have managed near 440k in 2 quarters to March 2023 and near 480k in Q2 2023 so does practically no growth or even reductions with two factories ramping up make any sense? So one line of reasoning queried whether the 1.8 million figure was a well sandbagged number or whether demand causing production to be throttled back?

Above may have failed to account for other explanations: Q2 Earning call suggested there would be production shutdowns but it isn't clear to what extent these were for upgrading production speed compared to other things like retool for Highland upgrade. While there were shutdowns, did this fully account for lower production or were there also speed reduction?

So is there some throttling of production or is there some other explanation?