Global Average Temperature October 2024 per gistemp LOTI v4 vs 1951-1980 base period (NASA Gistemp)
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Plus
5
Ṁ14k
resolved Nov 8
Resolved
YES
October 2024 greater than 1.085 C
Resolved
YES
October 2024 greater than 1.155 C
Resolved
YES
October 2024 greater than 1.205 C
Resolved
YES
October 2024 greater than 1.255 C
Resolved
YES
October 2024 greater than 1.305 C
Resolved
NO
October 2024 greater than 1.345 C

Data is currently at
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.csv

or

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt

(or such updated location for this Gistemp v4 LOTI data)

January 2024 might show as 122 in hundredths of a degree C, this is +1.22C above the 1951-1980 base period. If it shows as 1.22 then it is in degrees i.e. 1.22C. Same logic/interpretation as this will be applied.

If the version or base period changes then I will consult with traders over what is best way for any such change to have least effect on betting positions or consider N/A if it is unclear what the sensible least effect resolution should be.


Numbers expected to be displayed to hundredth of a degree. The extra digit used here is to ensure understanding that +1.20C does not resolve an exceed 1.205C option as yes.

Resolves per first update seen by me or posted as long, as there is no reason to think data shown is in error. If there is reason to think there may be an error then resolution will be delayed at least 24 hours. Minor later update should not cause a need to re-resolve.

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bought Ṁ500 YES

OK, 1.32

bought Ṁ500 NO

sorry, got a ding but not sure why

bought Ṁ150 YES
GIS TEMP anomaly projection (October 2024) (corrected, assuming -0.142 error, (absolute_corrected_era5: 15.102)):
  1.306 C +-0.091

It's close ... Ran gistemp with ersst/ghcn (using own program for ersst) yielding 1.31 C.

Might move up or down a bit with later revisions but for now I've sold some NO shares in that > 1.305 bin.

bought Ṁ250 YES

Latest run from today gone up to 1.32 C (previous runs I did were all 1.31)

bought Ṁ200 NO

1.32 C again today with latest run.

1.32 C again this morning with new ghcnm this morning from the last hour.

Will also likely see September's temp revised down to 1.23 C -shakes fist- 😂

@parhizj nailed it

Title says Oct, questions say Sept.

@ScottSupak Oops thanks edited to October.

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