Data is currently at
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.csv
or
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
(or such updated location for this Gistemp v4 LOTI data)
January 2024 might show as 122 in hundredths of a degree C, this is +1.22C above the 1951-1980 base period. If it shows as 1.22 then it is in degrees i.e. 1.22C. Same logic/interpretation as this will be applied.
If the version or base period changes then I will consult with traders over what is best way for any such change to have least effect on betting positions or consider N/A if it is unclear what the sensible least effect resolution should be.
Numbers expected to be displayed to hundredth of a degree. The extra digit used here is to ensure understanding that +1.20C does not resolve an exceed 1.205C option as yes.
Resolves per first update seen by me or posted as long, as there is no reason to think data shown is in error. If there is reason to think there may be an error then resolution will be delayed at least 24 hours. Minor later update should not cause a need to re-resolve.
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ok Dec 2024 only market
https://manifold.markets/ChristopherRandles/global-average-temperature-december?play=true
@ScottSupak @traders
Did Jan to Dec as below
https://manifold.markets/ChristopherRandles/global-average-temperature-2024-per?play=true
Do we want Dec alone as well?
With about a week left it seems there is some convergence for me in the last couple days towards the middle of the 1.26-1.3C bin; this is based on what I have been doing the last few months -- a meta-prediction of what the GEFS-ERA5 error will be for the rest of the month (offsetting remainder of days by a manual -0.2 degrees):
GIS TEMP anomaly projection (November 2024) (corrected, assuming -0.104 error, (absolute_corrected_era5: 13.980)):
1.272 C +-0.080What the (implied) point probabilities for the bin looks like with various plausible offsets for the remainder of the month
(last bin prob. on right is a bit fatter then the rest since it is effectively a wider bin):
(I've been referencing the blue line, -0.2C offset, for betting for some days now as it seems the most realistic but the other offsets are converging towards the middle of the bin as time is getting less and the predicted temperatures for those offsets also lines up less away from the edge of the bin compared to past days)
Reason for -0.2 C offsets (mapping GEFS to ERA5 for the remaining days and comparing prediction errors of GEFS-ERA5 shows a warm bias for my predictions of about 0.2C recently, thus the negative offsets) :
For reference Polymarket is predicting a warmer November in the 1.3-1.34C range (presumably as such bettors don't have as large a downward correction for ERA5 -> GISTEMP as the final linear correction I use for November is -0.104 C; if they are taking roughly half of that it makes more sense):
Month is done finally... Been stable in the bin for the last week, with a current point estimate of around 1.29 C +- 0.08C. Remaining ERA5 data won't change the probabilities significantly.
GIS TEMP anomaly projection (November 2024) (corrected, assuming -0.106 error, (absolute_corrected_era5: 13.996)):
1.288 C +-0.080@ChristopherRandles Typo:
November 2024 1.305C or more and less than 1.425C
->
November 2024 1.355C or more and less than 1.425C