Data is currently at
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.csv
or
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
(or such updated location for this Gistemp v4 LOTI data)
January 2024 might show as 122 in hundredths of a degree C, this is +1.22C above the 1951-1980 base period. If it shows as 1.22 then it is in degrees i.e. 1.22C. Same logic/interpretation as this will be applied.
If the version or base period changes then I will consult with traders over what is best way for any such change to have least effect on betting positions or consider N/A if it is unclear what the sensible least effect resolution should be.
Numbers expected to be displayed to hundredth of a degree. The extra digit used here is to ensure understanding that +1.20C does not resolve an exceed 1.205C option as yes.
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@ChristopherRandles Came out early? Didn't it used to come out in parallel with the global report?
Retrospectively, given that I bet the >1.205 up to ~88%, it seems I bet the higher 2 bins up too much even if the >1.205 one barely resolved YES..
Yes was earlier than I expected. "the global report" from NOAA? yes has sometimes been same day as that but I think it has also been earlier occasionally.
https://polymarket.com/event/june-2024-temperature-increase-c?tid=1720186157536
Prices look odd there?
1.26C is my final prediction since all the data is in.
GIS TEMP anomaly projection (June 2024) (assuming 0 error): 1.260Calculations for % tying for given anomaly ranges:
Error to tie monthly exceedance of 1.085 C (for June 2024): -0.175
% of years for June that have error > than the error needed to tie for exceedance of 1.085 C June 2024
(% chance of (tying or) not breaking anomaly record for June): 100.00 %
Error to tie monthly exceedance of 1.155 C (for June 2024): -0.105
% of years for June that have error > than the error needed to tie for exceedance of 1.155 C June 2024
(% chance of (tying or) not breaking anomaly record for June): 100.00 %
Error to tie monthly exceedance of 1.205 C (for June 2024): -0.055
% of years for June that have error > than the error needed to tie for exceedance of 1.205 C June 2024
(% chance of (tying or) not breaking anomaly record for June): 89.47 %
Error to tie monthly exceedance of 1.255 C (for June 2024): -0.005
% of years for June that have error > than the error needed to tie for exceedance of 1.255 C June 2024
(% chance of (tying or) not breaking anomaly record for June): 52.63 %
Looks joeover (for NO bettors on the related main market) for the rest of the month (trend is only rising temps where as ERA5 averages from 2023 trend downward).
(Does that meme work here?)
Finally put some more work into my notebook to do these interval probabilities:
I put it at about between 30-38% for exceeding 1.255 at the moment.
Rest of them are already in range.
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What is Manifold?
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Why use play money?Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
Why use play money?
Why use play money?