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Very strange. I make it 7% chance which is nowhere near exceeding 22*11= 242 so seems a clear no to me. (Why was Renz throwing mana away?)

Unless objections I intend to resolve no shortly.

curious

My 2 yes have little value. Anyone want to bribe me to keep these until close or sell and avoid a yes position for rest of time. (Not yet promising I will agree.) Perhaps no need to bribe me if you plan on pushing % up past 67%, my holding will disappear.

@ChristopherRandles i will pay you 10 mana to sell because it'd be funny (i hold no positions currently but that won't necessarily be the case by close i'm not sure)

@cece ok, sold now 15*5=75

@ChristopherRandles https://manifold.markets/link/Jaxetqjw lmk if you claimed or if it was stolen (if it was stolen it's literally 10 mana like please dont)

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@cece I/ll return it if I continue breaking deal. (This was mainly to stop someone else claiming it.) couldn't resist buying at .1%

@ChristopherRandles how much more do i have to bribe u to keep your YES positions

@DeadRhino dude

@DeadRhino OK I'll return pancakes 10 mana and have changed sell order to 701 to keep 1 yes position for you hi. 10 mana is ok with me.

@ChristopherRandles Do you have a discord i can send the manalink?

@DeadRhino sorry haven't set that up. If you just choose one of my resolved markets and tag me, if I miss it my fault.

Interesting. Previous markets have traded below 50% before going high right at the end for a yes judgement. I think that make sense as if unsure if the calculation will reach 100 then it is best betting no in case it does reach 100. If the calculations looks like it will fail to reach enough and the % chance stays low then pushing up makes sense.

This one is trading above 50% which seems to make it a clear push down towards 50% because even if the calculation doesn't reach 100, there will be more to be made pushing %chance down rather than up.

Calculation currently at 8 * 4 = 32 and more than a couple of days to go for the calculation to go higher.

10*4 = 40. A couple more yes positions and 5 more no positions with just under 2 days to go doesn't seem impossible; that would reach 17*6=102.

11*5=55

11*6=66

Still 11*6=66 with just 20 hours left. 6 new traders and it may be looking more like a no but few new traders and pushing up in last few seconds will look attractive.

13*7=91 getting risky for a whale to push up because someone new entering order for no at last second at 90-97% could win big. But will this cause lots of new no betters or will yes holders bail out on positions?

14*6=84

Do 2 or 3 yes holders want to place orders to sell their position at 70%? I have done so.