Number of Traders is figure displayed above graph.
Last similar claim ended with 15 traders 5 yes positions and 7 no positions, so if this claim ended similarly then %chance would have to be 76% or higher to resolve yes. A whale might push % chance up or down to make mana.
If this claim reached 20 traders and 6 yes positions, this might prevent a whale pushing %chance up but this situation might not last as the yes positions might decide to switch to a no position.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ155 | |
| 2 | Ṁ141 | |
| 3 | Ṁ68 | |
| 4 | Ṁ57 | |
| 5 | Ṁ29 |
My 2 yes have little value. Anyone want to bribe me to keep these until close or sell and avoid a yes position for rest of time. (Not yet promising I will agree.) Perhaps no need to bribe me if you plan on pushing % up past 67%, my holding will disappear.
@ChristopherRandles i will pay you 10 mana to sell because it'd be funny (i hold no positions currently but that won't necessarily be the case by close i'm not sure)
@ChristopherRandles https://manifold.markets/link/Jaxetqjw lmk if you claimed or if it was stolen (if it was stolen it's literally 10 mana like please dont)
@cece I/ll return it if I continue breaking deal. (This was mainly to stop someone else claiming it.) couldn't resist buying at .1%
@DeadRhino OK I'll return pancakes 10 mana and have changed sell order to 701 to keep 1 yes position for you hi. 10 mana is ok with me.
@DeadRhino sorry haven't set that up. If you just choose one of my resolved markets and tag me, if I miss it my fault.
Interesting. Previous markets have traded below 50% before going high right at the end for a yes judgement. I think that make sense as if unsure if the calculation will reach 100 then it is best betting no in case it does reach 100. If the calculations looks like it will fail to reach enough and the % chance stays low then pushing up makes sense.
This one is trading above 50% which seems to make it a clear push down towards 50% because even if the calculation doesn't reach 100, there will be more to be made pushing %chance down rather than up.
Calculation currently at 8 * 4 = 32 and more than a couple of days to go for the calculation to go higher.
14*6=84
Do 2 or 3 yes holders want to place orders to sell their position at 70%? I have done so.