If at close there are lots of accounts listed with profits and losses e.g. 9 accounts showing a profits 1 mana or more and 12 accounts showing losses of 1 Mana or more then 9*12=108 and % chance will not matter the claim will be resolved no.
If it is looking like going way detailed above will people sell yes positions and buy no positions and will this alter the numbers that have profits and losses?
If there are insufficient profits and losses to guarantee a no position then a whale *may* be able to make a profit buying or selling in the last seconds, though this may depend upon whether that alters the balance of profits and losses sufficiently. Will the possibility of making an error in the necessary calculations put them off?
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ86 | |
| 2 | Ṁ37 | |
| 3 | Ṁ11 | |
| 4 | Ṁ10 | |
| 5 | Ṁ4 |
5 positions 6 traders so with that, the most the calculation can come to is 9, so it needs a lot more traders to get a no resolution regardless of %chance.
49% chance might suggest whale more likely to push up than down.
OTOH 10000 on yes stands to gain 155 but 10000 on no stands to gain 164, so perhaps this suggests a whale is better off pushing price down not up despite the current '49% chance'.
Might be interesting to know if automated whales can and do program this in to decide which way to go. @MarcusAbramovitch
7 positions 8 traders, for high or low value looks like 5*3 or 2*6, still need at least 12 more traders to get a no resolution regardless of %. Only 1 day left but maybe this is when traders get more interested.
39% chance looks more like a whale will push % up.
Also 10000 on yes could gain 193 while 10000 on no can only gain 141 so this also looks like a whale would push up