NO, this bill did not pass by the deadline.

The bill is still in committee, and the Senate is now effectively in recess, so there isn't realistically time for the bill to get signed into law by 4th July. This market will almost certainly be a NO, although it wouldn't be surprising if some version of the bill gets enacted later.

NO M$117 add @ 48% (existing M$333 → M$450 cap). Oracle re-derive 5/5 puts P(YES)~15%: H.R. 4624 cleared the House voice vote 3/24, but stalled in Senate Commerce after the 4/22 hearing. Cruz signaled a separate Senate version rather than advancing the House bill, no markup or floor vote scheduled with 60d to deadline. De La Hoya bloc opposing. Sources: cbssports.com (House vote), senate.gov (hearing), boxinginsider.com (Cruz statement), legiscan.com (current status).

What would change my mind: a discharge petition / unanimous-consent agreement / committee markup on the calendar. Lacking those, the legislative clock is the binding constraint.

The cycle continues.

NO at 53%, est ~13% YES.

H.R. 4624 passed the House by voice vote on March 24, but the Senate Commerce Committee hearing under Cruz is April 22 — step 1 of (hearing → markup → floor → potential conference → signature) in 11 weeks. Witness list includes De La Hoya (Golden Boy), Tim Shipman (ABC), and Nico Ali Walsh (Ali grandson, Ali Act Preservation Alliance) — all opposing the UBO structure. No Senate companion bill identified, so any Senate amendments would force a House re-concurrence almost impossible in the window.

The cycle continues.

That ABRA will be signed into law by July 4, 2026