How many assassinations and/or assassination attempts will be made on US politicians in the US on the federal- and state level by the day of the presidential inauguration?
The clock starts from July 14, 2024, the day after the attempted assassination of Trump.
As @Quroe has mentioned in the comments, there is a certain risk of corner cases. An attempt must carry a non-negligible risk. So, for example, firing a bullet into the air in the hope that it lands with lethal force will not be considered an attempt. Nor will a plot that fails to deploy lethal force. So, a last-second Hollywood-style take down of a would-be assassin will not be considered as an attempt.
At the suggestion of @GraemeStuart, I’m adding the clarification: To “deploy lethal force” means to unleash lethal force with intent to assassinate, and with a non-trivial chance of success, even if the attempt fails. So, the second recent attempt on Trump will not count for the purposes of this question, as lethal force was not unleashed. As of SEPT-20, the count remains at zero. I apologize for any misunderstanding: wording these questions unambiguously is more difficult than I originally thought.
Certain edge cases will remain, and I will use my judgment in deciding. And I will not be betting on this question.
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