https://manifold.markets/DanielRohrer/will-there-be-a-white-christmas-in?r=RGFuaWVsUm9ocmVy

Will there be a White Christmas in more than 30% of the United States on 12/25/23?

40% chance. For reference, here are the last 6 years of data, over which the average is 34.4%: 2022: 53% White Christmas 2021: 26.6% 2020: 26.5% 2019: 28.1% 2018: 24.6% 2017: 49% This will be determined by the results on NOAA's website: https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/

What criteria will you be using to resolve this market? The main climate station for Phoenix at Sky Harbor has not reported a below freezing temperature since Jan 2, 2019.

@kalassak That’s probably the last time there was a temp below freezing! But it’s supposed to be a cold winter this year. So yes, climate station at Sky Harbor.