🏅 Top traders

This can resolve to NO

Colts/Texans probably meet on the field and flip a coin if there are 4 seconds left and they are about to tie next week.

Only one week of games remaining for this to become YES.

I completely mixed myself up on this one. Was getting really to sell after the Titans punt, so my finger was on the button. After the huge pass to Singletary, for some reason my brain said, ok, that's the big play that locks it in, now do the thing, not realizing that thing was to stay with my NO position (or buy more), not selling ALL(!) of my NO shares lmao.

@StopPunting I knew something funky was happening right around then!

@SethWalder months of hard work undone by just trying to front-run, maybe there's a lesson in there for me

Tie lovers are seething after the Eagles/Bills and Titans/Colts game.

I think both the Eagles and Bills may have been heavily incentivized to go for a tie in that game (as it may have been worth significantly more than 0.5 wins for both). Bills to avoid tiebreakers, and the Eagles would remain over the 49ers (not that the teams in practice would have played it differently).

@StopPunting Teams just never consider it at all. It's always "play for the win!" no matter what.

@AjayChabra To be fair, going home with a tie does make us fundamentally question what it means to be a sport (especially if you play only 17 of these things all year).

In order of least to most silly ideas I think if the 10 minutes runs off then you have a "shootout" style 2-pt conversion off back and forth. Or an independent party throws hail marries (with pass interference legal but not unsportsmanlike conduct) until somebody catches one. Or each team takes turns kicking doing shootout style kicking from the extra point line, but each time you kick, you have to use a different kicker. Or both teams submit a bid for how much of a win they want (i.e. 0.6), and the lower bid gets that amount and the other team gets 0. Or each team selects a QB and CB to independently take an on field 10 question Wonderlic test and whichever team scores higher out of 20 wins. Or every player can volunteer a portion of their salary to Give Well and then team with the highest total donation wins the game (and has to donate).

Naïve pure probability rationale warning:

Since overtime was shortened to 10 minutes for the 2017 season (I think a really bad change but w/e), there have been 7 ties through Week 8 of the 2023 regular season.

There have been 1689 regular season games. 256*4(16 game seasons)+272*2 (17 games seasons) - 1 (Bills/Bengals) +122 (this season).

7/1689 = 0.00414446417

1-(1-0.00414446417)^150 (Remaining Games) = 0.4637

Hopefully somebody checks my math (and profits if I'm off).

Obviously, with 7 ties the base rate could be way off. We saw an example of a game incentivized to Tie on both sides (Raiders/Chargers) not played that way, so I don't think we have to worry about that (i.e. later season games more likely to tie).