This question regards the order of state margins in the 2024 election:

Current order per https://manifold.markets/election

Lean Dem:

CO: 88% D

NH: 85% D

ME: 84% D

NM: 79% D

MN: 79% D

VA: 78% D

Swing states:

MI: 55% D

PA: 51% D

WI: 50% D

NV: 58% R

GA: 59% R

AZ: 59% R

NC: 67% R

Lean R:

OH: 85% R

FL: 90% R

TX: 93% R

AK: 93% R

IA: 93% R

This will resolve as yes if any Lean Dem state votes more Republican than a swing state OR if any Lean Rep State votes more Democratic than a swing state.

Motivation for this question:

Nate Silver gave TX/FL 2/3% chance of being the tipping point, this is low compared to >10% each in 538s model.

JHK is more in line with 538s view (8-9%), but Nate Silver is highly respected. Is he right?

If this question resolves no, a consequence would be that the tipping point state must be one of the 7 swing states or ME-2 or NE-2 (which are ignored for this question)