Rough criteria:
W%
If tied, favors team with closer games and wins earlier in the series. Not exactly pt differential but similar
Update 2025-05-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Based on creator comments, tie-breakers (when W% is equal) will consider the leverage of games won:
Wins in high-leverage situations (e.g., early in the series to take a lead) are valued more.
Wins in low-leverage situations (e.g., a blowout win when already down 3-0) are considered less meaningful.
Example given: A team going up 2-0 then losing 4 straight might be considered to have performed better in the tie-breaker than a team that won games 4 and 5 after being down significantly early in the series.
Update 2025-05-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has provided specific numerical values for leverage to quantify the tie-breaker when W% is equal. These values are based on the game number and the series score at the time (assuming each game is initially 50/50):
Game 1: 0.3125
Game 2: 0.3125
Game 3: 0.375 (if series is 1-1), 0.25 (if series is 2-0 or 0-2)
Game 4: 0.375 (if series is 2-1 or 1-2), 0.125 (if series is 3-0 or 0-3)
Game 5: 0.5 (if series is 2-2), 0.25 (otherwise, i.e., 3-1 or 1-3)
Game 6: 0.5
Game 7: 1.0
The creator also noted that point differential is intentionally avoided partly because it can be misleading due to garbage time.
1,000@bens to weigh high leverage games higher.
A game 4 blowout win down 3-0 is relatively meaningless.
If the Knicks go up 2-0 then lose 4 straight, that's a closer series than if the Nuggets won games 4 and 5.
@ChinmayTheMathGuy also pt differential can be misleading due to garbage time.
To understand leverage if we assume every game is 50/50, the average game has leverage of 0.3125 but a game 7 has a leverage of 1.
Game 1: 0.3125
Game 2: 0.3125
Game 3: 0.25 if 2-0 or 0-2, 0.375 if 1-1
Game 4: 0.125 if 3-0 or 0-3, 0.375 if 2-1 or 1-2
Game 5: 0.5 if 2-2, 0.25 otherwise
Game 6: 0.5
Game 7: 1