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@ChinmayTheMathGuy i’ll note that from raw counting stats, Wemby is unambiguously top 20! This doesn’t even factor in defensive prowess!

@benshindel that stat inlcludes blocks and steals (defensive prowess),

after you adjust for team (Trae shouldn't be 12th, Lamelo shouldn't be 20th) Wemby falls out of the top 20

Nuts finish to the season:

@benshindel 40-20-7 is a bonkers statline

@benshindel 35 blocks in this stretch btw

@benshindel yup if it was weighted towards more recent games, he'd be All-NBA caliber.

Right now I resolved it as 85/15 since I think he just missed the top 20 cut by my estimation, but I think 15% accounts for the uncertainty in my estimate.

I'm gonna make the case that Wembanyama is pretty unambiguously a top 20 player this season (even WITH his slow start). You say in the criteria that you're basing it off statistical indicators. Here are some:

He currently has the SECOND highest defensive rating in the NBA, after Gobert. I don't think this is a statistical fluke, he obviously passes the eye test on defense with flying colors: https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/nba-defensive-rating-leaders-this-season-advanced-stats

His PER is 13th in the league (I know PER is an imPERfect statistic, but still...):

https://www.espn.com/nba/hollinger/statistics

He is leading the league in blocks by a MASSIVE margin (and has the most blocks per game since the 2015-16 NBA season):

https://www.nba.com/stats/leaders?StatCategory=BLK

He's top 10 in usage, so he's being relied upon by the Spurs and is getting all of the defense's attention since he's surrounded by bad players:

https://www.nba.com/stats/players/advanced?CF=MIN*GE*10&dir=-1&sort=USG_PCT

538 is no longer running their "LEBRON" player stats, but I'm pretty confident those would put him as a top 20 player. Remember, defense is half of basketball!

On top of being a lock for a top 5 defender in the NBA this season, he's not exactly a flake on defense. He's averaging > a 20-10-3.5 statline with respectable shooting splits, I mean for christ's sake, he's 38th in the NBA in POINTS alone!!! I think a player that is the 38th leading scorer in the NBA, while simultaneously pulling in 10 rebounds, 3.5(!) blocks, and having the second best defensive rating in the NBA is a "top 20 player".

Also, I'm a Suns fan and hate the Spurs so I think I'm an unbiased observer, lol

Let me know what you think @ChinmayTheMathGuy

@benshindel I'll add, I don't expect Wemby to actually receive all-NBA honors (although potentially all-defense teams), as there's historically a bias against rookies

@benshindel

Oof I had a well written out comment that got deleted while switching tabs. I'll try to recreate as best as possible (same points, with slightly worse prose)

1: as I said to @SemioticRivalry those are per possession. This question's about per game. he's 23rd in EPM, but 30th in EPM wins

Given how close to the end of the season we are with Wembanyama having ~60 games of All-Star level play, even sustaining or exceeding the All-NBA level he's been at the past 2-3 months for the final 15 games, would likely "only" push him from ~30th to ~25th rather than the top 20 required to resolve as All-NBA caliber

2: I agree he's an amazing defender (best in the NBA in my opinion) based on per game stats (blocks, steals, rebounds, defensive stats, defensive FG%, team stats such as team defensive rating with him in court

3: PER is per minute and generally favors low minute centers such as Andre Drummond, Mark Williams, Trayce-Jackson Davis, and Daniel Gafford who are each top 30 in PER but not all-star caliber.

By PER times MPG (to make it per game):

Wembanyama (664) isn't top 25. For reference Markannen is 25th with 708

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask?q=most+per%2Ampg+this+season

4: usage % measures % of team's possession "used" or ended by that player while on the court where "used" means shot attempt or turnover.

so usage % is a confounder with being a good player since more shot attempts and turnovers is correlated with more points and assists. If you regression analysis holding points, assists, and maybe even factors like team success or teammate quality constant you'd find a higher usage % is bad all else equal.

seeing LaMelo Ball, Kyle Kuzma, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Cam Thomas so high somewhat proves my last paragraph

Let's compare Wemby with the 2nd highest player in usage % on the Spurs and a great player in his own right: Devin Vassell

Usage % × Minutes % per game:

Wembanyama: 30.8% × 29.0 ÷ 48.22 = 18.5%

Vassell: 22.8% × 32.8 ÷ 48.22 = 15.3%

Points % per game:

Wembanyama: 20.8 ÷ 112.4 = 18.5%

Vassell: 19.3 ÷ 112.4 = 17.2%

Assist % per game:

Wembanyama: 3.5 ÷ 29.8 = 11.7%

Vassell: 4.0 ÷ 29.8 = 13.4%

so these metrics indicate that Wembanyama scores as much as he uses the ball and Vassell scores more than he uses the ball. Additionally, Vassell is a better playmaker with more assists and he "spaces" out the floor with his 3p shooting (38.0% on 6.6 3PA vs Wemby's 32.7% on 5.15 3PA)

So Vassell is likely a better offensive player than Wembanyama. Let's verify whether this is the case using established all in one numbers.

Offensive Rating (the counterbalance to the Defensive Rating you brought to up to say Wemby is a top 5 defender and I agree with):

Vassell: 113.9 (3rd of 9 on Spurs) 285th of 557

Wembanyama: 104.4 (8th of 9 on Spurs) 439th of 557

For reference, league average ORTG is 115.5 this season

Offensive EPM:

Vassell: +1.1 (84th percentile)

Wembanyama: +0.7 (81st percentile)

BPM:

Wembanyama: +1.6 (54th of 189)

Vassell: +1.1 (66th of 189)

I think you were referring to RAPTOR not LEBRON

Neil Paine has an estimated version of RAPTOR for this year: https://neilpaine.substack.com/p/nba-estimated-raptor-player-ratings

which has

Wembanyama: 109th overall (69th in WAR)

-2.1 offense, +3.4 defense

Vassell: 139th overall (65th in WAR)

+1.6 offense, -0.7 defense

Here is LEBRON (few weeks outdated fwiw) too

Wembanyama: 2.43 (29th, 33rd in WAR)

Offense: -0.07

Defense: 2.50

Vassell: -1.09 (208th, 150th in WAR)

Offense: 0.06

Defense: -1.15

Hopefully that addressed all your points:

In summary

1. Per Game not Per Possession or minute

2. I agree that Wembanyama is the best defender in the NBA, top 5 minimum

3. His offense is what's bringing him down, he doesn't compare favorably to his teammate Devin Vassell.

4. Trust me, I really understand the NBA stats landscape

If you have an issue with me both trading and judging this market, I'd consider resolving to probabilities since rankings are subjective, but that probably introduces more bias and makes it more confusing.

Hopefully you understand the criteria for resolving this market which, while subjective, is as close to objective/consistent as you can get for something like this.

@ChinmayTheMathGuy

1 and 2) I don't quite understand the distinction you're making between per-possession statistics and per-game statistics. I could easily turn "defensive rating" into a "per-game" statistic by saying something like "alright I'm ranking players' per-game DR by multiplying their defensive rating by their team's average possessions per game." It's not a meaningful distinction, in this sense.

Even putting that aside, the alternatives to defensive rating are stats like blocks/steals per game, where Wembanyama is even HIGHER! So this shouldn't really impact the outcome. But if you're truly going off per-game defensive stats like those, then Wembanyama is clearly the best defensive player in the NBA this year (across the entire season, not just recent games). That would surely be enough to resolve at least top 20 overall (again, defense is half of the sport).

3) This argument doesn't make sense given the current PER rankings (there are no fluky centers on the ranking list this year, and indeed the list lines up pretty well with MVP ranking lists, with Embiid only excluded because of how few games he's played this year): https://www.espn.com/nba/hollinger/statistics

Also, the distinction between per-minute and per-game stats is fairly semantic. I could just as easily called PER a "per-game stat normalized to minutes played", or something.

4) Every stat is imperfect. Usage % is obviously a very imperfect stat but it does capture one thing really well which is how much the team is reliant on that player's offense. Wemby's high usage % shows that San Antonio's offense is already incredibly reliant on him, despite him making most of his impact on the defensive end. It's just another data point showing how good of a player he is in his rookie year.

Also... I'll note that since I made my comment, Wemby has had TWO more 30 and 15 games, as well as scoring 17 blocks in 4 games. Lol

@ChinmayTheMathGuy oh and by the way, I have no problem with however you decide to resolve this market! I understood it would be a subjective resolution going into it! I'm just trying to persuade you XD

Here's an update on where he'd currently be.

Through 9 games (if the season ended today), this would resolve as Above Average (top 60, but not all-star caliber).

Here's a game by game breakdown:

In game 1, he was above average

In game 2, he was either All-Star caliber or All-NBA caliber

In game 3, he was terrible

In game 4, he was above average

In game 5, he was MVP level

In game 6, he was either All-Star caliber or above average

In game 7, he was worse than starting caliber

In game 8, he was terrible

In game 9, he was either MVP or superstar

That averages out to Above Average.

For reference:

• If you remove his 2 worst games, he'd be All-Star caliber or All-NBA caliber in his 7 best games

• If you remove his 2 best games, he'd be starting caliber in his 7 worst games

• If you remove his 2 best and 2 worst games, he'd be above average in his middle 5 games

After Game 10, there's a chance he's at average.

@ChinmayTheMathGuy after a many really bad performances, he's either average or starting caliber. The Spurs look like the worst team in the NBA by many stats.

@ChinmayTheMathGuy after a stretch of good performances he's either above average or average so far.

@ChinmayTheMathGuy he's above average so far after yesterday's game

@ChinmayTheMathGuy still above average for the season but he's been All-Star Caliber for the last 15 games.

@ChinmayTheMathGuy trending towards All-Star Caliber. If the season ended today, I'd probably resolve as above average since he's top 50, but not top 40.

@ChinmayTheMathGuy It appears Wemby has solidified himself as a top 40 player in the NBA, but did not make the all-star game so this market is leaning towards resolving to All-Star Caliber.

For him to be All-NBA caliber, he'd need to sustain the play he's had the last 4 games (MVP level) for the final 25 games of the season.

@ChinmayTheMathGuy Victor has been amazing lately, definitely solidifying him as All-Star Caliber at the worst if the season ended today

For him to finish as All-NBA caliber, he'd need to be a superstar for the final ~20 games. Which is within the realm of possibilities since he has been one of the best players in the NBA in the past 8 games:

• Luka Doncic

• Victor Wembanyama

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

• Jayson Tatum

• Nikola Jokic

• Giannis Antetokounmpo

have each player at an MVP level during that span.

• Jimmy Butler

• LeBron James

• Anthony Davis

have been superstar level during that span

• Derrick White also deserves recognition for having a league best +20.75 plus-minus in the last 8

@ChinmayTheMathGuy fwiw he's now top 20 in pretty much all the advanced stats i see

@SemioticRivalry those are per possession. This question's about per game.

For example, he's 19th in EPM, but 27th in EPM wins

For reference, ESPN projects him to be Above Average, I personally expect him to be All-Star Caliber, but the way he's dominating in preseason All-NBA caliber doesn't seem out of the picture.

However, historically in

2022-23: Paolo Banchero was average as a rookie

2021-22: Mobley/Scottie were average as rookies and Cade was starting caliber

2020-21: LaMelo was average as a rookie and Haliburton and Edwards were starting caliber

2019-20: Zion was either All-Star Caliber or Above Average as a rookie and Ja was either Above Average or Average as a rookie

2018-19: Luka was either All-Star caliber or Above Average and Trae was either average or starting caliber

2017-18: Simmons was likely All-Star Caliber and Mitchell was likely Above Average

Hopefully that helps with potential ambiguities