NFL “Playoff Locks” markets (to make playoffs)

300Ṁ1217

Jan 4

99%

All ~100% (NE, DEN)

94%

All ~98-99% (LAR, SEA, BUF, JAX)

76%

All ~90-95% (GB, HOU, PHI, SF)

96%

Exactly 1 NFC East Team

90%

Exactly 2 AFC West Team

98%

Exactly 1 NFC South Team

99%

Exactly 1 AFC North Team

94%

Exactly 2 NFC North Teams

98%

Exactly 2 AFC East Teams

90%

Exactly 3 NFC West Teams

94%

Exactly 2 AFC South Teams

20%

Colts, Bengals, or Dolphins

Current Playoff Odds:

Tier 1 (almost guaranteed, need to lose out and every other team 8+ win team to nearly win out including Philip River led Colts to miss)

NE: 100.0%
DEN: 100.0%
Tier 2 (near lock: need to lose all final 4 games to miss)
BUF: 98.9%
SEA: 98.8%
LAR: 98.6%
JAX: 98.5%
Tier 3 (need to win 1, maybe 2 if easy schedule and other teams win):
HOU: 94.8%
GB: 94.0%
SF: 92.8%
PHI: 90.7% vs 20. DAL: 13.1%
Tier 4 (On the edge: likely in)
LAC: 77.1% vs 18. KC: 16.1%
Tier 5 (Either or vs a division rival)
TB: 69.8% vs 17. CAR: 30.6%
PIT: 61.1% vs 16. BAL: 36.0%
CHI: 59.8% vs 15. DET: 51.4%
Spoilers (no expectations of getting in):
IND: 13.5%
CIN: 3.6%
MIA: 0.4%