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MANIFOLD
Next Sonnet model to top AECI
2
Ṁ275Ṁ307
2027
7%
5.6
7%
5.7
7%
5.8
3%
5.9
12%
6
7%
6.1
7%
6.2
7%
6.3
1.9%
6.4
13%
6.5
28%
None by Sonnet 6.5

Context:

  • Dario “Pacing the Frontier”

  • Sonnet 3.5 - 4.5 were all Anthropics “frontier model” at time of release (June ‘24 - Sep ‘25)

  • since Opus 4.5 - 5.5 (Nov ‘25 - Sep ‘26), only Opus and Mythos/Fable were released as “frontier models”

Resolves based on Anthropic System card / marketing for new (public) model releases

e.g. Sonnet 5.5 would have been NO based on the system card (167.93 < 169.12)

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