Context: IIRC both were valued around $9B earlier this year,
After Ilya’s recent podcast with Dwarkesh, he said he views SSI
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aR20FWCCjAs
AI suggestion below here:
This is a fascinating "Philosophical vs. Practical" market. Ilya Sutskever’s SSI is betting on a single, massive research breakthrough (the "Teenager" who can learn anything), while Thinking Machines (and others like Anthropic or OpenAI) are betting on iterative, agentic products that scale through current economy integration.
Here are some suggested parameters to make this a robust, high-integrity market that won't end in a frustrating "N/A" resolution:
1. The "Last Known Value" Rule (Acquisitions & Failure)
To avoid N/A resolution if a company is acquired or goes bust, you should use a "High-Water Mark" or "Exit Value"clause:
Acquisition: If Company A is acquired for $50B in 2032 and Company B is acquired for $30B in 2035, Company A wins.
Failure: If Company A goes bankrupt but Company B is still alive (even if valued at $1), Company B wins.
Comparison: If both are alive in 2040, resolve based on the most recent formal valuation round or public market cap.
2. Early Resolution Trigger (The 10x Gap)
Since 2040 is a very long horizon for a prediction market, an early resolution clause keeps the capital from being dead for 15 years.
The Rule: "If at any point after 2030, one company has a formal valuation or market cap at least 10x higher than the other for a period of 6 consecutive months, the market resolves immediately to the leader."
Why 2030? This allows SSI time to move out of the "Age of Research" and actually build the "Superintelligence" Ilya promised.
3. The "AGI/Singularity" Clause
If Ilya is right and we hit superintelligence, the concept of "value" in dollars might become localized or obsolete.
The Parameter: "In the event of a singularity or a post-scarcity scenario where traditional valuations are no longer published, the market will resolve to whichever entity is widely considered to have achieved 'Lead AGI' status or has the most compute/influence at that time."
4. Are they comparable? (The Metric)
You should specify that "Valuation" is the only metric, not revenue.
SSI could have $0 revenue in 2035 but be valued at $500B because they have a "working brain."
Thinking Machines might have $20B in revenue but be valued at $200B because they are seen as a "utility."
By sticking to Valuation, you are measuring the "Market's belief in their future power," which is exactly what Ilya and Dwarkesh were discussing.
5. Suggested Market Description Text
If you want to copy-paste this into your description:
Resolution Criteria:
This market compares the enterprise value of Thinking Machines and Safe Superintelligence (SSI) on Dec 30, 2040.
Measurement: Resolution is based on public Market Cap or the most recent post-money private valuation.
Acquisition: If a company is acquired, its value is fixed at the acquisition price (inflation-adjusted to 2040 USD).
Bankruptcy: If a company ceases operations without being acquired, its value is $0.
Early Exit: If after Jan 1, 2031, one company maintains a valuation 10x higher than the other for 180 days, the market resolves early.
Post-AGI: If traditional markets cease to function due to AI advancement, the market resolves based on the consensus of which entity holds greater agentic power/influence.
The Contrast to watch:
When betting on this, your users will be looking at Ilya's "Teenager" theory: He wants a model that learns like a human (continual learning). If that works, SSI becomes an "infinite worker" that can move into any field. Thinking Machines is betting that being a "Great Student" is less valuable than being a "Great Tool" right now.
2040 is the perfect date for this, as it’s the exact end-of-range for Ilya's 20-year superintelligence timeline.
1,000