His campaign had momentum entering the debate, however after the debate his support has stagnated.
Resolves as true if his odds of winning the GOP nomination never surpass 10% from August 31st 2023 to November 1st 2024 and false otherwise.
Source of odds: https://electionbettingodds.com/
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@mattyb can't resolve it because if something happens to trump and he rejoins the race and the markets have him at 10%
@ChinmayTheMathGuy that’s wild. might as well leave it until the convention itself (in case there’s mass unfaithful delegates), or until election day
@ChinmayTheMathGuy This locks our mana in for months, I propose it gets reresolved if he joins back, but for now it's a YES? does that sound fine to you
@FrederickNorris I think the year barely matters. He isn't coming back. He'll drop out soon.
@FrederickNorris if the 2.7% number is accurate and betting markets are rational, that corresponds to a 27% chance of 10% and 73% chance of 0%, but perhaps the betting odds are severely overstating his odds.
@ChinmayTheMathGuy I'm not sure it works quite that way. Anything is possible of course, but the chances of Vivek mounting a comeback at this late date seem quite slim. But that said, he might stay in regardless, so I just took my profit instead of waiting a year.
@FrederickNorris
Look at it like this:
Vivek's odds of winning = x
Vivek's odds of winning given he hits 10% odds some time in the future: y
Vivek's of winning given he never hits 10% : 0
We know x = y*P(Market Resolves as No) + 0*P(Market Resolves as Yes)
Therefore P(Market Resolves as No) = x/y
To find P(Market Resolves as No), you just need to determine x and y. Suppose you think x = 0.5% and y = 5%, then you believe the market should be at 90%.
For reference, he was at 13.5% in late August, so if the market said July 31st 2023, it would have resolved as NO.
@ChinmayTheMathGuy I think the mistake you're making is that his poll numbers and the odds of him winning are not inter-related. His poll numbers could be at 5% and he miraculously wins against the odds. Being at 2.7% in the polls isn't his odds of winning either.
There is no way to calculate Vivek's rise, in the polls or otherwise.
To me, it seems essentially impossible he'll get to 10% in the polls or betting markets. I don't think we can put this on a math scale to figure it out.
@FrederickNorris sorry for late response, but I never mentioned poll numbers. I was just talking about probability which is well defined.
Betting markets (in theory) are not polls, they correspond to % chance of winning, so will eventually go to 0% or 100%.
This market asks whether will he go from 2% to 0% or 2% to 10% first.
If Trump drops out right now, I presume his odds go to 10% even if Nikki or Ron win it.
@AaronBreckenridge I thought he did so much worse. His hair seemed as high as DeSantis's platform boots. His fast-talking speech makes him seem more like a slick car salesman than the Clinton "I feel your pain." People vote with their hearts, and he just doesn't have the goods. Wither Vivekmentum.
Here's the math behind calculating the odds of this:
If the market resolves as true, he has a 0% of winning.
If the market resolves as false, he'd have reached 10% odds per the betting market or something crazy (i.e. Trump ineligible or something) where he immediately goes from 5% to 50%.
If the betting market is efficient and mostly continuous, this market's odds should be 1 - 7.1%/>10% = >29% ≈ 30%.
If his only path to nomination is if Trump is ineligible, then this market should be above 50%.
I wonder if there’s any second-choice polling which could reveal if he managed to pick up support among those who indicate Trump as their first choice. That seems to maybe be his target (running to either be a replacement if Trump is removed or for his VP if not), but that kind of success won’t show up in most polls.
@jbca Yeah I feel like if he ends up Trump's VP that should be considered a successful campaign, but that may be beyond the scope of the market.
@jbca there's two polls (non-Trump) ending on 8/26 that have him ~8% behind DeSantis (24% to 32%). But the more recent (with Trump) ones have him falling from the DeSantis tier to the Haley tier.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/
