I will be referencing the data released by The National Provisioner.

• The 2025 data they released: https://www.provisioneronline.com/articles/119935-beef-chicken-and-turkey-dominate-sales-gains

• The 2024 data they released: https://www.provisioneronline.com/articles/118044-thanksgiving-delivers-big-gains-for-the-meat-department?utm_source=chatgpt.com

They give it out as an article and one of the tables show the total sales of "fresh turkey" during November. Here are the two tables from the prior years:

• November 2025 (818M USD)

  

• November 2024 (803M USD)

  

BACKGROUND AND STARTING RESEARCH:

U.S. fresh turkey sales are heavily concentrated around Thanksgiving, making November a particularly predictable month to study. In 2025, turkey sales benefited from consumers responding to promotions and the late timing of Thanksgiving. For 2026, sales could be influenced by several factors: turkey supply and avian influenza, production costs and grocery prices, inflation and Trump policies, consumer incomes and willingness to spend, supermarket promotions, the price of substitutes such as chicken and beef, and changing Thanksgiving habits such as eating at restaurants or serving alternatives to whole turkey. In fact, Circana found that 97% of Thanksgiving dinners were eaten at home or someone else's home in 2025, so grocery-store turkey demand remains closely tied to how Americans celebrate the holiday. This makes the question “Will U.S. fresh turkey sales during November 2026 beat 2025?” more than a random guess: there is a measurable historical baseline, predictable seasonal demand, and several economic and supply-side factors that could push 2026 sales either above or below 2025.