US vs. IRAN free mana: What Will Happen Before the End Of 2026? [ADD OPTIONS]

Question

When any of these happen, the options will be resolved. Verification will be with major news outlets. Feel free to add options :) Please make the wording specific through the title or by adding comments to it.

If you trade on all 3 default options on this market, gimme screenshot evidence in the comments and I'll mamangram you 10 Mana.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, US and Iran sign another formal temporary ceasefire, followed by US and Iran resume attacks on each other (Iran's proxys - hezbollah, etc. - count) and Shadow-Peace (neither side wants to start a war or sign a treaty that looks like a political defeat) are most likely. See the market for live updates (2 traders, as of Jul 28, 2026).

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