Resolution criteria

This market resolves to the national football team that officially takes the place of Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup should Iran withdraw or be excluded from the tournament.

• "Iran will participate": Resolves to YES if Iran remains in the tournament and competes in their scheduled matches.

• "The next best Asian team": Resolves to YES if FIFA replaces Iran with an Asian Football Confederation (AFC) nation based on qualifying criteria (e.g., the highest-ranked non-qualified team from the AFC or the direct runner-up from the relevant qualifying pathway).

• "Italy will participate as the world number 12": Resolves to YES if FIFA elects to replace Iran with Italy.

• "Other": Resolves to YES if FIFA selects any other team not explicitly listed above, or if FIFA decides to proceed with the tournament without replacing Iran (e.g., playing with a reduced group).

Resolution will be based on official announcements from FIFA. You can monitor official updates at FIFA.com. If Iran does not withdraw or is not excluded, the market will resolve to the option "Iran will participate."

Background

There has been public speculation regarding Iran's participation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup due to regional political tensions. According to FIFA regulations (specifically Article 6 of the 2026 World Cup regulations), if a participating member association withdraws or is excluded, FIFA retains sole discretion to decide whether to replace that association and by which process. While there is no automatic rule mandating which country fills a vacancy, potential solutions often discussed include selecting an alternate from the same confederation (AFC) or choosing a team based on world rankings or qualification performance. As of early 2026, FIFA has not made a definitive decision on a replacement process should a vacancy arise. If Iran participates as scheduled, this market will resolve to that outcome.