Will someone other than Biden, Harris, Buttigieg, or Newsom receive the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?
Will someone other than Biden, Harris, Buttigieg, or Newsom receive the 2024 Democratic presidential nomination?
88
1.1kṀ84kresolved Nov 6
Resolved
NO1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if the Democratic nominee is someone other than Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg, or Gavin Newsom.
Long overdue disambiguation: this refers to who the Democrats put on the ballot in November. So, if there's a convention and Biden is nominated, it can still resolve YES if something happens between then and November, and the Democrats put forward someone else who isn't mentioned in the title.
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@Sokkenmakers Taking a second to re-analyze my wording and the spirit of the market, I feel that this is about who the Democratic Party is officially putting forward in November. In which case, while extremely unlikely anything could alter the likely NO resolution, I would prefer to keep it open until then.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.