17-year-old Hannah Cairo claims to have disproven a long-standing conjecture in mathematics by finding a counterexample: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2502.06137

This market resolves immediately as YES if the counterexample is proven to be invalid before the market closes on August 6, 2025. It resolves immediately as NO if the paper passes peer review or after the deadline passes.

Additional information can be found here:

https://www.reddit.com/r/math/comments/1ltm2sv/17_yo_hannah_cairo_finds_counterexample_to

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44481441

• Update 2025-08-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator plans to resolve the market as NO unless someone points to an error in the counterexample within the next 24 hours. See the linked comment for more details.