MANIFOLD
Each card will resolve to its premier draft GIH winrate in Jan-Feb/24 season of MTG:Arena cube
3
Ṁ375Ṁ100
resolved Feb 7
Resolved
60%
Luminarch Aspirant
Resolved
58%
Lightning Bolt
Resolved
58%
Swords to Plowshares
Resolved
55%
Brainstorm
Resolved
55%
Gilded Goose
Resolved
54%
Thoughtseize
Resolved
53%
Gingerbrute

New MTG:Arena market format in test. Feedback very welcome!

As an example, if the market was about last years data, it would resolve cards as follows:
Banish into Fable to 66%, Inventive Iteration to 65%, etc. (64.5% would resolve 65%)
https://www.17lands.com/card_data?expansion=Cube&format=PremierDraft&start=2023-01-01&end=2023-12-31&sort=ever_drawn_win_rate%2Cdesc

I will determine the outcome with the 17lands data from the dates between 22nd of Jan and 6th of Feb (2024).

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Sorry for the newbie question: What does it mean to resolve "Banish into Fable to 66%"? If I put 10 mana on "YES", was that a correct prediction or not?

@AutisticForest as long as the bet changes the probability to <=66%

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