Will there be a catastrophic terrorist attack that occurs within a US state on or before July 31, 2024?
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Dec 1
6%
chance

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I will clarify more as needed, but I will arbitrarily define a “catastrophic terrorist attack” to mean an attack involving 30 or more victim deaths by any means that law enforcement officials confirm was at least partially motivated by (geo)political/religious/ideological reasons, whether or not mental illness may have been a factor.

Additionally, any perpetrators who are killed during the duration of the attack will not factor into the victim death toll.

3/7/24 Edit: Technically Washington, D.C. is not a US state, so it will not be included as a US state for the purposes of this market, nor will any non-state US territories.

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The US would be on high security alert today if the probability was larger than 5%

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