Resolves YES if at any point in time, Ukraine takes control of the Kurs Nuclear Power Plant, by the end of August 31, 2024 (Ukraine time), according to maps provided by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
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Insight Prediction market up. Odds a bit lower than here or at polymarket. https://insightprediction.com/m/301577/will-ukraine-take-the-kursk-nuclear-plant-by-aug-31
An analysis of why so many Russian troops (~1-2k) are surrending in Kursk, and how this could trigger an exponential domino effect of surrenders.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0hAoGbUyCMc
Honestly I wish I had more mana to throw at a YES prediction, it's insane how much I'll win at 8%, I"m kind of disappointed that I bought in around 17% lol
The Enforcer says the shots in this reddit video sound like be M777 artillery shells, which means the Ukrainian Artillery can't be more than 20 km away from the Kursk Oblast.
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1ep4woj/explosions_being_heard_in_kursk/
https://www.youtube.com/live/MvFNWk-q1K0?feature=shared&t=2222
Map of the invasion on The Enforcer's Youtube Channel, which covers the war in Ukraine.
https://www.youtube.com/live/MvFNWk-q1K0?feature=shared&t=2222
https://x.com/nexta_tv/status/1822617962454397322
"Russian troops building fortifications south of Kurchatov, where the Kursk nuclear power plant is located: satellite images"
The powerplant feeds ~90% of the industry in the Kursk region and represents about 1.5% of all russian electricity production, so its shutdown could potentially affect millions of russians and lots of industry and mining (especially iron ore). Both sides know this.
https://x.com/NOELreports/status/1822161532228104696
Russian Sources report that the Ukrainian Army has been moving closer to Kurchatov (Town bordering the Powerplant) during this night.
https://x.com/mission_rf/status/1821985720833347858
The Russian Permanent Mission to the International Organizations in Vienna reports:
"Russia informed #IAEA about the situation at the Kurskaya NPP in light of Ukraine’s attack of the Kursk Region:
On August 8, fragments & remnants – presumably, pieces of intercepted rockets – were discovered at the plant, incl. in the radioactive waste processing area."
https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1821972253942395144
"Russia: Electrical substation destroyed in Oktyabrsky district, west of the Kursk Nuclear Powerplant and east of Kursk city proper.
The district's electricity is out."