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MANIFOLD
Is Eliezer's guess that a random X/Twitter video was taken in an Airbnb accurate?
18
Ṁ350Ṁ441
resolved Feb 18
Resolved
N/A

https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1734430078724104348

Summary:

@devonzuegel [commenting on a 1 second video showing a kitchen cabinet with a trash can inside that swings out when the cabinet door is open]:

The fact that this isn't standard practice is evidence that there is low hanging fruit everywhere. You just need to look for it.

@ESYudkowsky:

I somehow automatically inferred that you were in an Airbnb when you took this video. Does that happen to be true?

Resolves YES if @devonzuegel confirms that the video is of someone in an Airbnb, NO if they confirm that it is not of someone in an Airbnb, N/A if they don't confirm by market close or say that they were not the one who took the video and do not know the location the video was taken from.

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now THAT is the prediction markets we deserve