When will Israel begin a ground incursion in Rafah?
81
1.5k
2.6k
resolved May 16
100%98%
May 2024
0.0%
February 2024
0.3%
March 2024
0.3%
April 2024
0.4%
Israel will not
0.5%
June 2024
0.1%
July 2024
0.1%
August 2024
0.2%Other

Resolves according to media consensus. If the war ends it will resolve 'Israel will not' even if another war begins later (except if another war starts within 2 weeks of the end date)

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I think the "ground incursion" standard in this market has been met and it should resolve "Yes".

1) IDF reports casualties in Rafah - 6 wounded and 1 killed so far.
2) 162nd Division is operating in Rafah, and more forces were deployed yesterday.
3) Reuters, Bloomberg, Al Jazeera, NYT, etc. have all reported tanks and IDF forces operating in Rafah city proper.

@CelebratedWhale

Israeli tanks push deeper into Rafah; battles rage in northern Gaza - Reuters

(May 14, 20249:44 PM EDT)

  • CAIRO, May 14 (Reuters) - Israeli tanks pushed deeper into Rafah on Tuesday, reaching some residential areas of the southern Gazan border city where more than a million people had sought shelter, and its forces pounded the enclave's north in some of the fiercest attacks in months.

    Israel's international allies and aid groups have repeatedly warned against a ground incursion into Rafah, where many Palestinians fled and Israel says four Hamas battalions are holed up. Israel says it must root out the remaining fighters.

Israel’s war on Gaza updates: Many killed as Israel launches ground attacks - Al Jazeera

(14 May 2024)

  • More than 450,000 Palestinians have now fled Gaza’s southern Rafah city with another 100,000 evacuating the north as Israel’s military steps up ground incursions.

  • The UN says it provided Israel with the coordinates of a convoy that was attacked, killing the first international aid worker, an Indian colonel, since the war began.

Israel-Hamas war: Israel pushes deeper into Rafah - APNews

(11:36 PM EDT, May 12, 2024)

  • The exodus of Palestinians from Gaza’s last refuge accelerated Sunday as Israeli forces pushed deeper into the southern city of Rafah.

bought Ṁ1 Israel will not NO

For some reason this market is glitching hard for me and showing me that I spent Ṁ654,379,482,742,745,500,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 which I did not. I open in an incognito window and it shows the right amount of 847 Mana. What gives?

@nathanwei The website is also glitching like crazy, all my messages are deleted and I keep being redirected to https://manifold.markets/browse/for-you?q=me&s=score&f=open&ct=ALL which is a weird page with giant blue coffee cub emojis and giant purple Qs and question marks.

@nathanwei It seems fine now. Weird glitch.

May 2024

Israeli strikes overnight kill dozens of Palestinians in central Gaza. Here's what you need to know. - CNN

  • "At least 450,000 Palestinians have fled Rafah, according to the UN's agency for Palestine refugees (UNRWA), as Israeli officials say they will press ahead with plans for a full-scale ground invasion of the city."

  • "Build-up of Israeli forces near Rafah: The Biden administration has assessed that Israel has amassed enough troops on the edge of Rafah to move forward with a full-scale incursion in the coming days, but senior US officials are currently unsure if it has made a final decision to carry out such a move in direct defiance of President Joe Biden, two senior administration officials told CNN."


@CelebratedWhale
Per other user reports:
The Metaculus market has resolved YES


Hamas is rejecting the hostage deal that Israel proposed:
Hamas indicates it will snub latest hostage deal offer, but says talks to continue | The Times of Israel.

Of course Hamas wants the talks to continue so they can buy time, but Israel had called it their last chance. And Netanyahu wants to invade Rafah anyway, even if there is a deal with some temporary ceasefire:
Israel's Netanyahu vows to invade Gaza's Rafah 'with or without' a hostage deal : NPR

The only roadblock is that Israel doesn't want to lose US support. And if there are too many casualties, Biden will be forced to condemn them. So they're still trying to figure out a plan:
Israel briefs US on plan to move Gazans ahead of Rafah invasion - POLITICO

So it doesn't sound like the invasion is happening within the next week, but I'm pretty confident it will happen by the end of May.

The latest update doesn't give any sign that a ceasefire is coming:

https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-gaza-hamas-war-humanitarian-aid-5fb0455b81674b2bfe38d997c95d6f00

But it seems like the US may be trying to apply more pressure on Israel not to invade: https://www.axios.com/2024/05/05/israel-us-ammunition-shipment-hold

reposted

Will this market resolve at the end of May? If not, oughtn't there be more options?

Also, what's the difference between "Other" and "Israel will not" on this market? Are there any eventualities not covered by the other options?

@DanielFox9fff you can freely add options. I just added June 2024. Other is an automatic option covering anything between June and 'will not.' Note: if you have a share in Other, you will get a tiny share in any new option created after you bought your Other shares.

"Israel was set to take its first steps toward a ground offensive in Rafah this week, but has delayed those plans as it mulls a response to Iran’s attack, two Israeli sources tell CNN."

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/middleeast/live-news/israel-hamas-war-gaza-news-04-15-24/index.html

bought Ṁ100 Israel will not NO

@CelebratedWhale Is it time to resolve February as NO?

@GazDownright Yes but I'm not sure if I'm able to resolve one thing as no

@CelebratedWhale I've seen it done on the "mega" markets. If something happens you can always "unresolve."

@GazDownright I'm happy to do it I just legitimately do not know how

@GazDownright I think that only works for unliked multi markets, those that can resolve to more than one

@Shump I see, that makes sense, thanks for chiming in.

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