Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI by January 1, 2024?
Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI by January 1, 2024?
176
1.6kṀ71k
resolved Nov 30
Resolved
YES

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predictedYES 1y

We are back online

predictedNO 1y

and then fix the close date again by clicking the button next to the close date

predictedNO 1y

This should not be resolved yet.

predictedNO

imo this should unresolve even though it should almost certainly resolve yes, we can just wait until we have evidence of him actually being back to work at openai

1y

What happened?

predictedNO 1y

@TheBayesian Yes do we have an announcement with a start date? That’s very relevant for the other markets. I haven’t looked for an update yet

1y

@WilliamEden I’m not aware of an update, and get notifs from all the major players’ twitter accounts, so maybe the market creator resolved it like some others did based on the weight of the evidence, but imo if there is no new info by which they chose to resolve it it should stay open until we have more information

predictedYES 1y

@TheBayesian I may have been slightly deceived by blatantly misleading news headlines. If I could re-open, I would do so.

predictedNO 1y

you can! click the vertical dots in the upper right and there is an 'unresolve'

predictedYES 1y

@CarterHinsley Apparently I can re-open :)

predictedYES 1y

@CarterHinsley Sorry for the heart attack folks. And thanks Mr. Polack

1y

@CarterHinsley No worries, thank you :p

1y

1y

Shouldn't this market be decaying with time? Surely a long negotiation is not a positive sign?

1y

it's been like three days negotiations about who controls a company might take a month in a normal company

predictedYES 1y

@jacksonpolack Fair, but I still don't understand why this market went up so much. Plus, I imagine work in OpenAI has slowed down significantly, so there is lots of pressure to finish this quickly.

predictedYES 1y

@Shump See ashlee vance's tweet

1y

@CarterHinsley If that's all the evidence we have now, then i'm out.

1y

https://manifold.markets/milanw/will-sam-altman-be-the-ceo-of-opena arb, for some reason lots of new accounts are betting a lot of no in that market, I am confused

firstuserhere soldṀ1,093NO
1y

@firstuserhere I don't think that's what Ilya meant by "Reunite the company". I think he's just committing to cleaning up the mess, and saying he regrets the damage done to the company.

1y

@chrisjbillington Oh, I sold cuz someone put up a 10K limit order on another market. I'm buying NO there.

1y

@firstuserhere Ah fair enough!

predictedNO 1y

@firstuserhere wow yeah good job nabbing that

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