Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI by January 1, 2024?
resolved Nov 30

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predicted YES

We are back online

predicted NO

and then fix the close date again by clicking the button next to the close date

predicted NO

This should not be resolved yet.

predicted NO

imo this should unresolve even though it should almost certainly resolve yes, we can just wait until we have evidence of him actually being back to work at openai

What happened?

predicted NO

@TheBayesian Yes do we have an announcement with a start date? That’s very relevant for the other markets. I haven’t looked for an update yet

@WilliamEden I’m not aware of an update, and get notifs from all the major players’ twitter accounts, so maybe the market creator resolved it like some others did based on the weight of the evidence, but imo if there is no new info by which they chose to resolve it it should stay open until we have more information

predicted YES

@TheBayesian I may have been slightly deceived by blatantly misleading news headlines. If I could re-open, I would do so.

predicted NO

you can! click the vertical dots in the upper right and there is an 'unresolve'

predicted YES

@CarterHinsley Apparently I can re-open :)

predicted YES

@CarterHinsley Sorry for the heart attack folks. And thanks Mr. Polack

@CarterHinsley No worries, thank you :p

Shouldn't this market be decaying with time? Surely a long negotiation is not a positive sign?

it's been like three days negotiations about who controls a company might take a month in a normal company

predicted YES

@jacksonpolack Fair, but I still don't understand why this market went up so much. Plus, I imagine work in OpenAI has slowed down significantly, so there is lots of pressure to finish this quickly.

predicted YES

@Shump See ashlee vance's tweet

@CarterHinsley If that's all the evidence we have now, then i'm out.

https://manifold.markets/milanw/will-sam-altman-be-the-ceo-of-opena arb, for some reason lots of new accounts are betting a lot of no in that market, I am confused


@firstuserhere I don't think that's what Ilya meant by "Reunite the company". I think he's just committing to cleaning up the mess, and saying he regrets the damage done to the company.

@chrisjbillington Oh, I sold cuz someone put up a 10K limit order on another market. I'm buying NO there.

@firstuserhere Ah fair enough!

predicted NO

@firstuserhere wow yeah good job nabbing that

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