Will Sam Altman return to OpenAI by January 1, 2024?
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resolved Nov 30
Resolved
YES

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CarterHinsley avatar
Carter Hinsleypredicted YES

We are back online

jacksonpolack avatar
jackson polackpredicted NO

and then fix the close date again by clicking the button next to the close date

ooah0 avatar
NSpredicted NO

This should not be resolved yet.

jacksonpolack avatar
jackson polackpredicted NO

imo this should unresolve even though it should almost certainly resolve yes, we can just wait until we have evidence of him actually being back to work at openai

TheBayesian avatar
TheBayesian 🦚

What happened?

WilliamEden avatar
William Edenpredicted NO

@TheBayesian Yes do we have an announcement with a start date? That’s very relevant for the other markets. I haven’t looked for an update yet

TheBayesian avatar
TheBayesian 🦚

@WilliamEden I’m not aware of an update, and get notifs from all the major players’ twitter accounts, so maybe the market creator resolved it like some others did based on the weight of the evidence, but imo if there is no new info by which they chose to resolve it it should stay open until we have more information

CarterHinsley avatar
Carter Hinsleypredicted YES

@TheBayesian I may have been slightly deceived by blatantly misleading news headlines. If I could re-open, I would do so.

jacksonpolack avatar
jackson polackpredicted NO

you can! click the vertical dots in the upper right and there is an 'unresolve'

CarterHinsley avatar
Carter Hinsleypredicted YES

@CarterHinsley Apparently I can re-open :)

CarterHinsley avatar
Carter Hinsleypredicted YES

@CarterHinsley Sorry for the heart attack folks. And thanks Mr. Polack

TheBayesian avatar
TheBayesian 🦚

@CarterHinsley No worries, thank you :p

Dave_9000ish avatar
Dave_9000ishbought Ṁ100 of YES

Shump avatar
Shumpsold Ṁ141 of YES

Shouldn't this market be decaying with time? Surely a long negotiation is not a positive sign?

jacksonpolack avatar
jackson polackbought Ṁ55 of YES

it's been like three days negotiations about who controls a company might take a month in a normal company

Shump avatar
Shumppredicted YES

@jacksonpolack Fair, but I still don't understand why this market went up so much. Plus, I imagine work in OpenAI has slowed down significantly, so there is lots of pressure to finish this quickly.

CarterHinsley avatar
Carter Hinsleypredicted YES

@Shump See ashlee vance's tweet

Shump avatar
Shumpsold Ṁ139 of YES

@CarterHinsley If that's all the evidence we have now, then i'm out.

TheBayesian avatar
TheBayesian 🦚bought Ṁ25 of YES

https://manifold.markets/milanw/will-sam-altman-be-the-ceo-of-opena arb, for some reason lots of new accounts are betting a lot of no in that market, I am confused

firstuserheresold Ṁ1,093 ofNO
chrisjbillington avatar
Chris Billington

@firstuserhere I don't think that's what Ilya meant by "Reunite the company". I think he's just committing to cleaning up the mess, and saying he regrets the damage done to the company.

firstuserhere avatar
firstuserheresold Ṁ877 of NO

@chrisjbillington Oh, I sold cuz someone put up a 10K limit order on another market. I'm buying NO there.

chrisjbillington avatar
Chris Billingtonbought Ṁ400 of NO

@firstuserhere Ah fair enough!

chrisjbillington avatar
Chris Billingtonpredicted NO

@firstuserhere wow yeah good job nabbing that